Vail Resorts' Near-Term Strategy Centers On Marketing, AI, And Stable Dividend: Analyst

Bank of America Securities analyst Shaun C. Kelley reiterated the Neutral rating on Vail Resorts, Inc. MTN on Friday, with a price forecast of $175.

The firm reported third-quarter revenue of $1.29 billion, narrowly missing estimates of $1.3 billion, according to Benzinga Pro.

Vail Resorts reported third-quarter earnings of $10.54 per share, beating estimates of $10.12 per share.

Kelley notes that it’s still early to assess the full impact of Vail Resorts’ new strategy, suggesting FY27 may offer a clearer picture than FY26 due to the time needed for pricing adjustments and filling the CMO role.

Also Read: Vail Resorts CEO Shake-Up Spurs Hopes Of Growth Rebound

On capital allocation, Kelley points out that the dividend appears stable for now. Future growth depends on significantly higher cash flows. No major shifts in M&A plans are expected in the near term.

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As of May 27, Vail Resorts reported a 1% year-over-year decline in pass units, while total dollars rose 2%.

The company had raised prices by 7% across its pass offerings, and the gap suggests a customer shift toward lower-priced products. Management highlighted healthy demand for day passes and noted no significant downgrade behavior, with customer migration trends holding steady compared to the last three years. Vail anticipates pass performance to remain stable through the rest of the season.

For FY26 EBITDA, Kelley highlights that key drivers include $33 million in net resource efficiency gains, $9 million from cycling past one-time CEO transition costs, $7 million from favorable foreign exchange, and approximately $10 million from improvements at Park City—contributing to the company’s $900 million EBITDA estimate for FY26.

Price Action: MTN shares are trading lower by 3.89% to $148.97 at last check Friday.

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