Meta Platforms Inc. META is entering its most statistically favorable 30-day stretch of the year, with a track record of consistently strong returns from June 11 to July 11 over the past 13 years.

With shares trading at $698 on Tuesday, around 6% below their all-time high of $740 reached on Feb. 14, the stage may be set for a fresh breakout of record levels.

A Remarkably Reliable Seasonal Pattern For Meta

Historical data from Seasonax shows that Meta shares have delivered gains in 12 out of the past 13 years during this specific 30-day window.

The average return in this period is 6.3%, with a median gain of 6.5%. The best return came in 2012 with a 14.68% rise, while 2022 marked the only losing year, with a modest 0.84% dip.

The standard deviation of returns is 4.49%, suggesting a fairly tight range of performance.

What makes this period especially compelling isn't just the strong gains, but how rarely those runs are interrupted by meaningful drawdowns.

Of the 12 positive years, only three saw a drawdown greater than 2% during the month: 2014 (-4.59%), 2016 (-4.37%) and 2020 (-3.72%).

Most of the time, intra-period pullbacks were either negligible or non-existent. For instance, in 2012, 2018 and 2023, the stock never dropped from the starting level during the entire 30-day stretch.

Even in the years with double-digit gains — 2012 (+14.68%), 2015 (+10.11%), 2019 (+12.99%) and 2023 (+10.05%) — drawdowns were capped at 1.72% or less, underlining how steady the climb tends to be.

Based on historical returns, if Meta follows its typical trend for this 30-day period, the stock could rise by $44 — bringing it near $742 by mid-July.

So far in 2025, Meta is up 19% year-to-date, outperforming the broader Nasdaq 100 index, which is up 4%, and is helped by robust earnings and aggressive monetization of its AI products.

In its April report, Meta showed revenue growth of 16% year over year to $42.3 billion and earnings per share of $6.43, up 35%.

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