Bitcoin Wobbles At $107,000: What Does Technical Analysis Say?

Crypto analysts Benjamin Cowen and DonAlt have presented diverging views on Bitcoin's BTC/USD trajectory following its recent price movements, with one warning of a cycle top and the other eyeing continued upside.

Bearish Case: Has Bitcoin Already Peaked?

Cowen highlighted a historically reliable indicator: the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) crossing above Bitcoin's prior all-time high. He noted this crossover has previously signaled macro tops, albeit with some variability in timing.

"Every time the 200-week SMA crosses above the previous ATH, a cycle top follows," Cowen said, referencing past bull markets.

While the 200-week SMA currently sits around $48,715—well below the $69,000 ATH—Cowen cautioned that forward extrapolation is tricky and market conditions could still shift dramatically. Despite his bearish lean, Cowen still favors Bitcoin over altcoins, noting Ethereum's recent strength as an exception.

Also Read: Bitcoin Hovers Below $110,000: Is This The Calm Before The Storm?

Bullish Case: Breakout Just Beginning?

In contrast, DonAlt sees continued strength for Bitcoin, especially on the monthly chart. He emphasized that Bitcoin recently broke resistance and is still trading above the crucial $95,000 level, calling the structure “solid.”

"As long as we're above 95 on the monthly, it looks bullish to me," he said.

DonAlt flagged $104,000 as a key short-term support. A close below that level could be bearish, but for now, he sees the bounce from support as a sign of resilience.

Still, he offered a word of caution about market conditions, calling them “a ginormous Ponzi” and warning of a growing disconnect between global economic hardship and asset price action.

"You don't stand in the way of a Ponzi while it's still Ponziing," DonAlt quipped, "but when it ends—you'd better have a plan."

Ethereum Outlook

Both analysts also shared positive takes on Ethereum ETH/USD.

DonAlt praised ETH's recent range reclaim on the monthly chart and sees diagonal resistance as the next major hurdle.

A break above could open the door to significant upside.

What's Next: As Bitcoin trades near the $110,000 mark, the question remains: Is the market nearing exhaustion—or gearing up for another leg higher? Cowen urges caution, while DonAlt favors riding the trend but with a readiness to act when the tide turns.

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