Eli Lilly & Co. LLY may be down over 8% in the past month and nearly 5% over the past five days, but JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott isn't backing off. In fact, he's doubling down.

Zepbound's Momentum Keeps Eli Lilly In The Lead

With Zepbound continuing to dominate the GLP-1 obesity category and new catalysts on the horizon, JPMorgan sees Eli Lilly as still one of the top picks in the sector.

Prescriptions for both Zepbound and Mounjaro are running ahead of expectations in the second quarter, positioning Eli Lilly to beat and raise guidance throughout 2025. Even with the CVS formulary change (moving away from Zepbound) putting ~200,000 patients at risk, says the analyst, Eli Lilly's market share — currently around 70-75% of new patients — and strong momentum suggest the company will easily absorb the impact.

JPMorgan expects a 1.2 million prescription surge for Zepbound in the second quarter alone.

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All Eyes On Orforglipron

While Zepbound leads today, the next potential rally may be sparked by Orforglipron, Eli Lilly's small-molecule oral GLP-1. Phase 3 obesity data is expected in the third quarter, with a launch targeted for mid-2026.

JPMorgan sees Orforglipron as a key unlock in expanding access, both domestically and internationally, especially as pricing pressure eases and insurance coverage improves.

Schott projects the incretin franchise could hit a staggering $79 billion in sales by 2030. Backed by easing capacity constraints and broader payer adoption, this next leg of growth could fuel EPS at a 22.9% CAGR with ~50% operating margins.

Valuation Pullback = Opportunity?

Despite the long-term upside, Eli Lilly stock is down 8% in the past month — a rare breather after a blistering five-year rally of 465%. JPMorgan sees this dip as a buying opportunity. At ~34x/25x conservative 2025/2026 EPS estimates, Eli Lilly offers an attractive entry point with minimal loss-of-exclusivity risk and high-teen EPS growth potential through the early 2030s.

Even tariff risks are seen as manageable, with Lilly already shifting API production to the U.S. and building inventory buffers. In JPMorgan's view, Zepbound might be the star of today — but Orforglipron could soon take center stage and reignite the rally.

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