- Starbucks’ rollout of Green Apron will be a headwind to earnings in 2026 and 2027.
- The rollout of Assistant Store Managers in mid-2026 will intensify this headwind.
- A new wave of value and momentum stocks could be setting up for major moves—and Tim Melvin will name them live this Wednesday. Secure access here.
Starbucks Corp's SBUX decision to accelerate the rollout of its Green Apron staffing model to all U.S. stores by year-end will be a headwind to earnings in 2026 and 2027, according to TD Cowen.
The Starbucks Analyst: Analyst Andrew Charles maintained a Hold rating and price target of $90.
The Starbucks Thesis: The Green Apron model will increase labor by 12% across US stores, Charles said in the note.
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The rollout of Assistant Store Managers to all U.S. company-owned stores in mid-2026 will add to the headwind from Green Apron, Charles added.
The earnings estimates for 2026-2028 have been reduced from $2.80 per share to $2.59 per share, from $3.17 per share to $3.00 per share and from $3.81 per share to $3.73 per share, which is now 12% below consensus on average, the analyst stated.
The labor investment is likely to drive sales. Same-store sales estimates for 2026-2028 have been raised to 4% per year, from 3.5% per year, Charles said.
Price Action: At the time of publication on Monday, Starbucks shares had declined by 0.75% to $92.42.
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