Democratic Party Implodes As MAGA Revolts — Can Musk, Yang Build Third Party?

Zohran Mamdani is expected to win the New York City Democratic Primary in a surprising turn of events, defeating former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo.

While the win secures Mamdani a spot on the general election ballot, he still faces a tough road in November's mayoral race.

What Happened: On Tuesday night, Cuomo—backed by several billionaires during the race—quickly congratulated Mamdani on his primary victory. But he also made it clear he hasn't ruled out an independent run in the November election.

"I said he won the primary election," Cuomo told the New York Times. "I said I wanted to look at the numbers and the ranked-choice voting to decide about what to do in the future, because I'm also on an independent line. And that's the decision, that's what I was saying."

With no candidate receiving a 50% majority on Tuesday night, voters’ second-place votes will be counted in a process that eliminates candidates and continues until one remains.

Cuomo's defeat came as a surprise to many. The former governor resigned four years ago amid sexual harassment allegations, which he denied. Backed by billionaires, Cuomo also aligned more closely with the traditional Democratic establishment than Mamdani, a democratic socialist.

Mamdani, 33, has sparked widespread debate with a platform that includes freezing rent, raising taxes on the wealthy, free city bus service, universal child care, and city-owned grocery stores.

Those policies have proven unpopular with the wealthy city residents and could see money poured towards candidates to defeat Mamdani in the November election.

Read Also: Cuomo’s Mayoral Bid Shakes Up NYC Race, Drawing Major Power Brokers And Critics Alike

What Happens Next: Mamdani's potential win on Tuesday is no guarantee that he will win in November. Regardless of whether Cuomo jumps in as an Independent, Mamdani will face off against incumbent mayor Eric Adams.

Adams is a Democrat who has been at odds with his party and is choosing to run in the November election as an Independent.

Some Democrats are hoping that Cuomo doesn't run in the general election, as his inclusion could split votes between Cuomo and Adams and secure a path for Mamdani to win the election. The large majority of Democratic voters, who outnumber the Republicans six-to-one, according to the New York Times, could split the vote between multiple candidates.

Another potential option could be a third-party run by someone like Andrew Yang, who previously ran in the New York City mayoral race in 2021 and ran for president in the 2020 election.

Yang established the Forward Party and, according to The Hill, reached out to billionaire Elon Musk as recently as this month to collaborate on a third party.

"We have been of the opinion that America needed a new political party for a number of years," Yang told Politico in an interview.

Yang reached out to Musk at a time when Musk was feuding with President Donald Trump and even polled his X followers to see if a third party that represents those who identify in the middle politically should be launched. Over 5.6 million people voted in the poll, with 80.4% saying yes, although not all the votes were likely from eligible American voters.

Yang has been supportive of Musk and the potential of a third party, which comes after Musk spent hundreds of millions to help support Trump in the 2024 presidential election.

"I want to work with people that recognize that America's political system has gone from dysfunctional to polarizing to even worse. And at this point, the fastest growing political movement in the United States is independents."

Yang highlighted that Musk has supported candidates that are both Democratic and Republican in the past and like other voters who supported Trump and the "Make America Great Again" movement, could be looking for alternatives going forward.

On Wednesday, Yang tweeted that “it’s a new day,” while sharing several posts about the NYC mayoral race.

While Yang or Cuomo will not necessarily run in the New York City mayoral race, a broader field of independent candidates could split the vote, making this one of the most consequential tests of whether a third party can win a major race.

Current odds on prediction market Polymarket show Mamdani as the favorite to win the November election at 73.1%, followed by Adams at 22.0%. Cuomo is listed with a current 2.9% chance, but that comes without him declaring an Independent run. Yang is listed with less than a 1% chance of winning, without publicly entering the race.

Another Polymarket prediction market is for whether Cuomo will run as a non-Democrat in the general election, with yes getting 34% of the vote.

On Kalshi, Mamdani is the favorite at 73%, followed by Adams and 24% and Cuomo at 5%. Yang is not currently listed.

Mamdani's primary win could impact stocks with a heavy presence in New York. Here are several movers highlighted by CNBC's Sara Eisen.

Flagstar Financial FLG is down 5% to $10.63 on Wednesday.

SL Green Realty Corp SLG is down 5% to $58.63 on Wednesday.

Vornado Realty Trust VNO is down 6% to $36.23 on Wednesday.

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• Mark Cuban Check Marks Elon Musk’s Idea Of A New Political Party That Represents ‘The Middle’

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