Winning And Losing Stocks From Tesla's Driverless Taxi Test

You may not have noticed, but on Sunday, June 22, the world of cars changed forever. 

That was when regular consumers for the first time got to take a $4.20-ride around Austin, Texas, in driverless taxis, courtesy of Tesla TSLA and Elon Musk.

The robotaxi test took place in a sectioned, geofenced area of Austin, with selected Tesla owners in the back seat, a Tesla employee on hand for emergencies in the front passenger seat, and no one physically behind the wheel.

By the end of the day, feedback began rolling in on social media, and it was overwhelmingly positive.

"We took two approximately 15-minute rides around Austin and the key takeaways are that it was a comfortable, safe, and personalized experience," noted Dan Ives, a Wedbush analyst, in a research note released later in the day on June 22.  

"The robotaxis we experienced today were foundational, and there is a path for the future where these robotaxis may also have Grok integration, interior customization, and a much more user-centric focus as there’s no longer a need to focus on the driver experience," Ives added.

He’s not alone.

"Today transportation changed FOREVER!" said JoshWest247 on X, after his test drive. "Robotaxi=FREEDOM!"

Amidst talk of the Tesla robotaxi adding $1 trillion in value to the company, plans are afoot to manage vehicle growth gradually, with 50 in operation by the fourth quarter of 2025 in Austin and 1,000-plus on the streets by year-end 2026. Tesla is also mapping out a California robotaxi expansion, targeting 2026, pending approval from the state. Over time, Tesla aims to replace Model Ys with its Cybercab robotaxi vehicle.

At first glance, the driverless future is golden, although there's plenty of highway miles ahead for industry leaders. At the very least, the Austin tests may serve as the launch point of a revolutionary new industry that changes everything we think we know about road transportation.

"Tesla's autonomous taxi test in Austin signals a very real shift toward mainstream adoption of robotaxis, not just a speculative future," said Kazimieras Urbonas, car analyst and supplier excellence manager at Ovoko, a technology-based auto parts company. "The major takeaway is that we're no longer just talking about autonomy, we're piloting it at scale. This shows growing maturity in Tesla's FSD (Full Self-Driving) tech, which will inevitably pressure other automakers to speed up their timelines."

According to Urbonas, driverless transport will be one of the most transformative changes in mobility, comparable to the transition from combustion to electric power. "While rollout will vary by region due to infrastructure and legal constraints, the long-term implications for logistics, ride-hailing, and even public transport are enormous," he noted. "Think safer roads, lower costs, and new urban design models."

As the smoke cleared from the test date, Wall Street commenced buzzing over the trading prospects of autonomous vehicle makers and which companies may be left behind as history is made with the first driverless taxi rollout.

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Which stocks will rock on as robotaxis get all too real, and which will go the way of horse and carriage after Henry Ford rolled up in a small, four-wheeled vehicle he called a Quadricycle on June 4, 1896? Here are a few candidates on both sides of the road.

Winners

Tesla

Benzinga Quality Ranking: 83.17

The carmaker's share price only popped by 1.2% in the five days following the Austin robotaxi tests, but the moment may have established Tesla as the king of the driverless transport hill, for now at least. Tesla has a lot on the line with autonomous vehicles, which comprises about 59% of the company's price target, amounting to $181 per share or $800 billion in implied value, according to RBC Capital.

"If Tesla can iron out safety concerns and scale fast, they could dominate the driverless car industry," said John Ellmore, EV Fleet Editor at UK-based KnowYourBusiness.

Alphabet 

Benzinga Quality Ranking: 86.66

Google's GOOG Waymo driverless taxi doesn't get the massive press that Tesla and Musk garner, but it's actually ahead of the curve on robotaxi testing. It's already up and running in four U.S. cities, with plans to roll out its autonomous vehicles in 17 more. It intends to launch commercially by 2026 or 2027. All told, Waymo is expected to account for 10% of the AV marketplace by the end of the decade.

Nvidia

Benzinga Growth Ranking: 98.61

Chipmaking giant Nvidia NVDA should benefit from the headway made by companies like TSLA and Waymo. "Nvidia's chips already power most autonomous driving systems," Urbonas said. "More driverless vehicles equal more demand."

Losers

Uber

Benzinga Growth Ranking: 97.49

Uber's UBER stock hasn't suffered from Tesla's wave of media coverage following its Austin testing weekend – it's up 8.36% this week alone. Analysts point to Uber's burgeoning relationship with Waymo and the fact that the company has entered into AV testing with Volkswagen and Pony AI.

Yet over the long haul, Uber doesn't seem to have a clear-cut path in competing with driverless taxis, which promise to be cheaper and more pervasive once Tesla and Waymo vehicles hit the open road.

Lyft

Benzinga Growth Ranking: 56.43

San Francisco-based ride-sharing company Lyft LYFT has seen its shares rise to the mid-teens (it was trading at $15.46 on June 27). Its stock is up 19% year-to-date. The firm plans to roll out its own AV line in Dallas over the next few months, with plans to expand to Canada and Europe the following year.

Still, the math is working against Lyft. It's already behind Uber in the rideshare market by a 30%-to-70% ratio. The company will be hard-pressed to compete with industry heavyweights like Tesla, which is expected to reach a $1 trillion market share within the next five years.

"Traditional ride-hailing platforms like Uber and Lyft could see margin compression as autonomous fleets reduce human labor costs," Urbonas added.

Traditional auto makers and auto parts companies

Legacy automakers without robust EV and autonomous vehicle pipelines could fall behind.

"That's particularly the case with those companies reliant on fleet sales and dealer-driven models," Urbonas said. "Auto parts suppliers focused on mechanical components (e.g., internal combustion parts) could also struggle as electric-autonomous systems reduce part complexity and maintenance."

Traditional auto repair chains could also struggle, and they won't be alone.

"Fewer moving parts mean fewer breakdowns," said Luis Montes, a heavy-duty transport equipment expert and chief editor at Fortis HD.  "Fuel providers take a hit if the shift is electric-heavy. Public transport might also lose funding if private driverless fleets get political backing. Even parking real estate will lose relevance if cars start circulating instead of idling."

Editorial content from our expert contributors is intended to be information for the general public and not individualized investment advice. Editors/contributors are presenting their individual opinions and strategies, which are neither expressly nor impliedly approved or endorsed by Benzinga.

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