'A Risky Business': Why Hollywood's $4.2B Summer Doesn't Mean The Crisis Is Over

Things are finally looking up for Hollywood, but the crisis isn't over yet, industry watchers tell CNN.

Box office returns have been down since the pandemic, with factors like theater closures, writers' strikes, ill-received blockbusters, and the rise of streaming releases impacting revenues. 

The start of the year didn't do much to inspire faith in studio executives, either. Things got off to a slow start with box office sales between Jan. 1 and April 3 down 13% compared with the same period last year, and 7.6% from 2023. Projected hits like Disney's DIS "Captain America: Brave New World" and "Snow White"  didn't attract audiences the way they'd been expected to.

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Things finally began looking up in April, with movies like "A Minecraft Movie," "Sinners," and "Lilo & Stitch" carrying the load. These movies contributed to a record Memorial Day weekend, which saw the box office up 22% compared to 2024, according to CNN.

That momentum is expected to carry into the summer, with high-potential releases like "How To Train Your Dragon," which grossed $135 million in its first few days in theaters. Warner Bros. Pictures’ "F1 and "Superman," Universal Pictures' "Jurassic World Rebirth," and Disney's "The Fantastic Four: First Steps" are also expected to fare well with viewers.

At the start of the year, Gower Street Analytics projected that the domestic box office would reach $9.7 billion this year, a post-pandemic high.

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Entertainment research firm Enact Insights founder Greg Durkin told CNN he attributes this comeback to a rise in high-quality films. 

Daniel Loria, the editorial director at Boxoffice Pro, agrees. "We're not selling Frosted Flakes or Coca-Cola … This is a product that reinvents itself every week," he told CNN. Loria added that while this year's releases have "fortunately" been connecting with audiences, it's still "a risky business."

"The lineup goes on hot and cold streaks. Something can look good on paper but not work in release, and vice versa," FranchiseRe box office analyst David A. Gross told CNN. "The ‘recovery' compared with last year is slipping, so it's not time to pop the champagne just yet,"

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Fortunately, all three experts agree that movies are fairly recession-proof. "It's pretty cheap to go to a movie, relative to going to rent a house and get on a flight, or rent a car," Durkin said. "You still need that escapism." So while viewers may be more price-sensitive and opt to visit on days when theaters are offering discounts and promotions, the economic uncertainty shouldn't hit Hollywood too hard.

"Looking at 2025 in a vacuum — what a great recovery," Comscore senior analyst Paul Dergarabedian told CNN. "It's all product-based. It's the movies that determine the box office, not the month." 

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