Clean energy investors weren't exactly celebrating Christmas in July when President Donald Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) into law over the 4th of July holiday weekend.
The bill's primary focus was the extension of his 2017 tax cuts, but it also rolled back several clean energy initiatives that former President Joe Biden had included in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2021.
While the official Senate version is more lenient to clean energy than the original House of Representatives’ version, the OBBBA strikes down a number of tax credits and incentives for renewable energy in both residential and commercial spaces.
Some clean energy sources fared better than others. Geothermal, hydroelectric and nuclear energy companies will feel less of a sting, but solar and wind stocks are looking at some serious headwinds coming in 2026.
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Some of the key provisions of the new law affecting the renewables sector include:
- Elimination of the 30% residential solar tax credit by the end of 2025 (originally slated to end in 2034).
- The phaseout of tax credits for commercial solar and wind projects started after July 4, 2026, for those not placed into service by December 31, 2027.
- Elimination of standalone battery backup tax credits after December 31, 2025.
- Termination of accelerated depreciation of solar property for anything built after 2024.
- Restrictions on receiving "material assistance" from Foreign Entities of Concern (FEOC), i.e., China, where a large percentage of solar components are produced.
The renewable energy industry is expected to face reduced demand, higher prices, job losses and increased regulatory burdens as a result of these new provisions. Today, we'll look at three stocks that investors may want to avoid as U.S. energy policy turns against wind and solar.
Sunrun Inc.
Sunrun RUN is facing headwinds from multiple angles as its stock continues to plunge – a trend that began last August. The company manufactures and installs solar systems for homeowners, with approximately 85% of its revenue derived from the residential sector. Sunrun's business model is heavily reliant on these tax credits, and now that the phaseout comes in five months instead of nine years, the company will likely face revenue drops and layoffs. Sunrun has a market cap of $2.4 billion and generates approximately $2 billion in annual sales.
However, despite a few profitable quarters, it has yet to post positive net income for a full year and has lost nearly $3 billion in the last 12 months alone. It's also one of the more heavily-shorted stocks on Wall Street, with more than 31% of the float sold short as of this writing. And, despite the recent upgrade from ‘Hold' to ‘Underperform' from Jeffries, the fundamental and technical outlook for Sunrun looks bleak.
Any hope Sunrun shares had of breaking out of their long-term downtrend likely fizzled with the passage of Trump’s bill. The stock has been fading for nearly 12 months now, with the downtrend line tested but yet to be broken. Two previous attempts to break the downward momentum resulted in quick reversals back to the lows, and now that OBBBA is law and projections indicate continued unprofitability, this cycle of sellers’ momentum is likely to persist.
SolarEdge Technologies Inc.
SolarEdge SEDG is a small-cap producer of inverters and power optimizer systems used in photovoltaic solar projects. The Israeli-based firm has a market capitalization of under $1.6 billion and generates annual sales of less than $900 million, with a net loss of approximately $1.8 billion over the last 12 months. While the company develops systems for both residential and utility-scale projects, regulatory headwinds and a lack of profits could doom the stock in a similar fashion to Sunrun.
SolarEdge narrowed its losses in Q1 2025, with EPS figures coming in at -$1.14 per share (beating -$1.26 consensus), and the $219 million in revenue represented 7.4% year-over-year (YoY) growth. However, analysts remain unimpressed: the stock has only one Buy rating from the 26 analysts with coverage, along with 15 Hold and 10 Sell ratings. The average price target is just $18.56, which implies a downside of more than 25% from the current market price.
The daily stock chart also provides some hints about the next price move, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has triggered an Overbought signal once again. In the previous two instances, the RSI hitting 70 resulted in the stock gapping down hard, and there's plenty of evidence to suggest this scenario will play out once again.
Enphase Energy Inc.
Enphase Energy ENPH is the largest company on our list, with a market capitalization of $5.6 billion and annual sales of $1.33 billion. It’s also the only profitable company listed here, with a net income of $102 million over the last 12 months and profit margins exceeding 10%. However, despite its size, profitability and an international client list, the company remains deeply tied to the U.S. residential solar and battery storage markets – two areas where the OBBBA seeks to reduce government subsidies.
Enphase Energy aims to be a one-stop shop for solar energy generation and storage, while also offering software solutions for energy management and communication. While this business model has proven profitable, the elimination of the residential solar credit and battery storage credit could reduce the company's margins and hinder future profit growth.
The stock had been trending downward since the November election, when the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average. Now, the 50-day MA appears to be functioning as a strong resistance level, and ENPH shares have failed to punch through this level for the entirety of 2025. The RSI also shows a stock with fading momentum as the indicator has been stuck in a tight range since last December, suggesting limited interest from both investors and institutions. The stock also trades with more than 25% of the float sold short, which isn't high enough to induce a short squeeze, but substantial enough to indicate the sour sentiment in the solar energy sector.
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