MongoDB Stock: Weak Structure Suggests Prolonged Slump

MongoDB Inc. MDB is currently in Phase 10 of its 18-phase Adhishthana Cycle on the weekly chart. After peaking in November 2021, the stock has struggled to regain momentum, now down over 65% from its all-time highs in 2021, and showing no signs of a recovery. Let's explore what led to this correction and why Adhishthana Principles suggest it may persist for years.

What Went Wrong with MongoDB’s Cycle?

Under the Adhishthana framework, stocks form a structure known as the Adhishthana Cakra between Phases 4 to 8. This is typically a channel or arc pattern, from which a breakout in Phase 9 signals the beginning of a strong bullish move.

MongoDB did follow this structure initially, forming a textbook Cakra and respecting the lower arc during its build-up. However, instead of breaking out to the upside in Phase 9, the stock broke down.

"When the underlying breaks the Cākra on the flip side, it typically draws consolidation up to the Guna triads. The movement after the break is typically highly significant, and the selling momentum is extremely strong. Such a move shall be called the Move of Pralayā."
— Adhishthana: The Principles That Govern Wealth, Time & Tragedy

This breakdown marked the start of a bearish stretch. The principles suggest that after a Move of Pralaya, a meaningful recovery is unlikely before the stock completes Phase 13. MongoDB is currently in Phase 10, and Phase 13 is set to conclude by October 24, 2027.

Monthly Chart Adds to the Weakness

On the monthly chart, MongoDB is in its second half of Phase 2, known as the Buddhi Move zone. But since the Sankhya Period (the early segment of Phase 2) wasn't structurally sound according to the principles, the likelihood of a sustained rally from this point is low.

Investor Outlook: Time to Stay Away

Given the long consolidation ahead and lack of structural strength, MongoDB is not a favorable pick for now. Existing shareholders may consider credit spread strategies to hedge against continued downside and slumps.

For new investors, it may be wise to stay on the sidelines until Phase 13 is complete and a structural shift is visible. The stock might rally at times, but it would be wise to avoid chasing those. 

The breakdown of the Cakra has triggered the Move of Pralaya, and historical data under the Adhishthana model shows that recoveries during this phase window are not sustainable. Until then, caution is key.