Three Factors Keeping Gold's Momentum In 2025: Report

Gold can maintain a firm upward trajectory into the second half of 2025, the World Gold Council's mid-year outlook said. With precious metal already up around 26% year-to-date, analysts outline persistent geopolitical risk, sustained central bank demand, and weakening U.S. dollar as key drivers for this thesis.

If economists and markets are correct, gold may track sideways or gain modestly, but deteriorating global conditions could push prices 10–15% higher," the report, released on July 15, said.

In 2025, the U.S. dollar came under pressure, declining by approximately 9% year-to-date. The culprit, as analysts see it, is the shift in sentiment away from American exceptionalism and toward the resilience of emerging markets.

At the same time, central banks—particularly in Asia—are expected to continue accumulating gold, albeit at a slightly slower pace than the record levels of 2022. This trend is helping to offset weaker consumer demand and increased gold recycling, both of which are triggered by high prices.

Geopolitical instability continues to elevate gold's safe-haven appeal. Tensions between the U.S., China, and key trading partners, along with persistent stagflation fears, are weighing on investor confidence.

Thus, gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and over-the-counter holdings are expected to remain in demand. Notably, the Council highlights growing institutional interest from Chinese insurers as a new source of structural support.

On the technical front, gold is in a consolidation phase after its explosive rally earlier in the year. The daily chart shows a well-defined sideways range since early May, suggesting a healthy digestion of gains.

With volatility narrowing, the setup suggests a potential breakout, particularly if macroeconomic catalysts emerge in the coming weeks. Key resistance stands near the $3,450 level, while support remains firm just above $3,200.

Gold spot price, year-to-date, Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, two major producers continue adjusting portfolios to streamline costs in this commodity cycle and focus on high-margin, long-life assets.

Per Bloomberg's anonymous sources, Barrick Mining B is in the final stages of selling its Hemlo mine in Ontario to Discovery Silver Corp DSVSF, as part of a strategy to exit non-core Canadian operations.

Newmont NEM, the world's largest gold producer, yesterday announced a sale of its stake in Greatland Resources and Discovery Silver for a combined $470 million. Following the 2023 acquisition of Newcrest Mining, the firm has sold $3 billion in non-core assets.

Price Watch: SPDR Gold Trust ETF GLD is up 26.68% year-to-date.

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