- Powell has publicly asserted that he cannot be removed by the president under current U.S. law.
- Trump appointed Powell in 2018, but tensions have escalated amid calls for rate cuts and criticism of Fed policies.
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Wagers on the decentralized predictions platform Polymarket suggest a growing belief that Donald Trump may move to oust Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, with traders assigning a 22% probability to the scenario playing out by the end of 2025.
The “Yes” outcome traded as high as 40% earlier on Wednesday after rising speculation following a series of private and public signals from Trump and Republican allies.
The surge in betting interest coincides with revelations from a senior White House official, who told CNBC that Trump directly asked GOP lawmakers in a closed-door Oval Office meeting whether he should remove Powell.
According to the official, lawmakers expressed support, and Trump indicated he was leaning toward the decision.
That meeting took place after a group of Republicans blocked a vote on crypto legislation the president favors.
While Trump appeared to downplay the immediacy of the move in public, telling reporters that a dismissal is "highly unlikely," he left open the possibility by adding, "I don't rule out anything."
The New York Times separately reported that Trump showed lawmakers a drafted termination letter during the same meeting.
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Despite these developments, top officials continue to signal restraint. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg he did not anticipate a move against Powell.
Rep. French Hill, who chairs the House Financial Services Committee, also told CNBC he doesn't believe Trump will go through with it.
Nonetheless, Florida Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, one of the lawmakers involved in blocking the crypto bill, posted on X that Powell's removal was imminent, citing an unnamed but "very serious source."
Legal and institutional hurdles remain significant. Powell has repeatedly stated that U.S. law does not permit the president to remove the Fed Chair without cause.
No president has previously succeeded in removing a Fed chief, although the position has frequently drawn political criticism.
Powell, first nominated by Trump in 2018 to succeed Janet Yellen, has been under increasing scrutiny during Trump's second term as he and other administration figures push the central bank to lower borrowing costs and criticize ongoing renovations at the Fed’s Washington headquarters.
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