- Rather than a super-cycle, Hougan sees the next few years delivering a steady and sustained crypto market expansion.
- He identified corporate treasury accumulation as a new risk vector that could introduce unexpected volatility into digital asset markets.
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Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, says the era of crypto's traditional four-year market cycle is over.
What Happened: In an X post on Friday, Hougan pointed to structural changes in the market, led by spot ETF flows, regulatory clarity, and deepening institutional participation as evidence that the halving-driven boom-and-bust rhythm is giving way to a more sustained, multi-year growth trajectory.
He emphasized that the factors which fueled past market cycles—such as halving-induced supply shocks and cyclical collapses are weakening in influence.
"The halving is half as important every four years," Hougan wrote, referencing the declining marginal impact of Bitcoin's BTC/USD quadrennial supply reduction.
He also noted that interest rates, a major headwind in 2018 and 2022, are now turning supportive of crypto markets.
Hougan added that the rise of regulated frameworks and the growing presence of institutional-grade infrastructure have "attenuated blow-up risk," making catastrophic collapses less likely.
However, he did flag the emergence of crypto treasury companies as a new market-wide risk to monitor, calling their influence "significant."
Also Read: $4,000 Is Ethereum’s Last Hurdle Before Price Discovery, Says Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz
The bigger shift, according to Hougan, is the advent of long-term, non-cyclical investment forces that don’t align with the historical pattern.
The launch of spot crypto ETFs in 2024 has triggered what he believes is a 5–10 year capital migration into digital assets via traditional channels.
Institutions such as pensions and endowments are now exploring crypto allocations, and many national account platforms are still in the process of approving ETF access.
He also cited the passage of the GENIUS Act in July 2025 as a catalyst for Wall Street's increasing involvement in the crypto sector.
"Wall Street is just now starting to build on crypto," Hougan noted, forecasting billions in new investment in the coming quarters.
What’s Next: Hougan tempered expectations by warning that volatility will remain high, but reiterated his belief that 2026 will be a strong year for crypto not due to a "super-cycle," but because of a "sustained and steady boom" driven by fundamental capital flows.
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