- 10x suggests Bitcoin must retest $111,673 or break $120,000 with conviction before a new directional trend can emerge.
- With fewer catalysts ahead, 10x expects traders to prioritize yield strategies and tight stop-losses over aggressive bullish positioning.
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Bitcoin's BTC/USD recent rally, in light of catalysts such as corporate earnings, the upcoming White House digital asset report, and the FOMC meeting could lose momentum once these events conclude.
According to a report by 10x Research, with no major triggers ahead and August–September historically weak months for crypto, Bitcoin may trade sideways or retrace unless new catalysts emerge.
The research notes that Bitcoin's latest price movements have been closely tied to short bursts of momentum rather than sustained trends, with each major rally triggered by events such as ETF approvals, Fed policy signals, or political developments.
With corporate earnings, the White House digital asset report on July 30, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting all concluding this week, the research suggests the market could enter a quieter phase.
Bitcoin recently dropped to $115,000 ahead of options expiry, a level that 10x had targeted in its June 24 report when it sold the $115,000 strike call for July.
While 10x remains constructive on the asset in the longer term, its latest strategy involves a strangle trade selling the $105,000 put and $130,000 call for the August 29 expiry to generate yield during a potential consolidation phase.
Why It Matters: The White House digital asset report is expected to address a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, regulatory frameworks, and systemic oversight.
10x Research cautions that a lack of clarity on the U.S. government's actual Bitcoin holdings and the timing of policy decisions could limit its market impact.
Reports suggest that the U.S. Marshals Service controls around 28,988 BTC, significantly below earlier estimates exceeding 200,000 BTC.
10x also highlights that Ethereum's ETH/USD rally, driven primarily by treasury allocations from companies like Bitmine BMNR and Sharplink SBET rather than core network activity, could face similar risks if momentum slows.
Ethereum's market cap and trading volumes have surged by over 50% in the past month, while fees and active addresses have only risen in single-digit percentages.
With August seasonality often resulting in lower volumes and reduced institutional participation, 10x warns that the Bitcoin market could become range-bound between $111,673 and $120,000.
The research stresses that discipline and tighter stop-losses will be crucial for traders navigating the weeks ahead.
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