Citi: Norfolk Southern's Profitability In Question Amid Rising Operating Expenses

Citi issued a company report on Norfolk Southern Corp. NSC after the company announced updated expectations for Q1 2015 EPS of $1.00, $0.26 below the consensus estimate. Citi rates Norfolk as Neutral and lowered its price target from $109 to $103.

Analysts Christian Wetherbee and Prashant Rao wrote, “The revenue expectation for $2.6b is in line with our recently lowered estimates, with the miss primarily driven by higher weather and service-recovery costs...Norfolk’s operations appear to be challenged by resource availability and inability to recover from tougher than expected weather. With consensus estimates headed toward our much lower expectations, we expect shares to be under sharp pressure.

Citi believes that Norfolk has been hurt by commodity prices and weather increasing operating expenses and decreasing profitability. Because Norfolk’s fuel charges operate on a two-week to two-month lag, volatility in fuel prices hurt the company’s ability to match expenses with surcharge collections. Citi believes that a bright spot for the company would be if management confidently steps in with its $1 billion buyback program on expected weakness.