Polcari: The New U.S. GDP Calculation Method? 'Just Make It Up'

In a note released on Friday morning, O’Neil Securities Director Kenny Polcari discussed the state of the U.S. stock market and next week’s critical U.S. GDP number. Polcari believes that the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will be reporting a strong GDP number next week, one way or another.

New Method

"After making this modification for recurring seasonal patterns, the data show GDP actually grew about 1.5 percent in the first quarter,” Williams explained.

Related Link: Is China's GDP Overstated?

Cooking The Numbers?

What Does It Mean?

Polcari predicts that the new calculation technique in the U.S. will likely produce a positive GDP number next Thursday. “It means that the administration will ‘massage’ the numbers until they get what they want… and if they get a number they don’t like – then they will massage it some more until they get the reaction they want,” Polcari writes.

If Polcari is correct, the market should be looking for the U.S. to meet or top consensus expectation of 2.4 percent GDP growth. One way or another.