Key Points:
The third quarter was a very strong one for earnings. The top line also looks good, especially if one excludes the financials. Soaring net margins have been the primary driver of the earnings growth.
Analysts have responded to the better-than-expected results by raising their estimates. The revisions ratio for 2010 has slipped a bit, but remains at a very healthy level of 1.75. For 2011, it is inching up and now stands at 1.48, which is also quite bullish.
However, we are well past the peak estimate revisions activity, which is now plunging. As a result, changes in the revisions ratios are being driven more by old estimates falling out of the four-week running total than new estimates being added. Some of the differential between 2010 and 2011 is “mechanical.”
Since the third quarter is part of fiscal year 2010, if a company beats by, say, $0.05, an analyst has to raise his fiscal year 2010 estimate or he is implicitly cutting his forecast for the fourth quarter. An increase for fiscal 2011 means that the analyst sees the better-than-expected results for the third quarter as being sustainable at least in the medium term.
Net Margin Expansion
The stellar earnings growth is mostly due to the continued expansion of net margins. Much of the year-over-year margin expansion is due to the Financials, where the whole concept of revenues is a bit different from most companies, and thus the concept of net margins is also a bit different.
However, even if the Financials are excluded, net margins continue to march northward. Earnings growth so far has been stellar at 25.3% year over year, although that is down from the over 30% levels we were seeing earlier in the reporting season. It is also a slowdown from the 37.1% year-over-year growth that the same firms reported in the second quarter.
Looking towards the fourth quarter, earnings growth is expected to continue to slow, but remain healthy on a year-over-year basis at 21.8%. However, three months ago, year-over-year growth for the third quarter was only expected to be 17.9%. I would not be hugely surprised if the year-over-year growth for the fourth quarter comes in north of 25%.
The expectations for the full year are very healthy, with total net income for 2010 expected to rise to $779.2 billion in 2010, up from $544.3 billion in 2009. In 2011, the total net income for the S&P 500 should be $868.0 billion, or increases of 43.1% and 11.4%, respectively. Translated to “EPS” for the index, that would be $57.62 for 2009, $82.20 for 2010, and $92.01 for 2011. In an environment where the 10-year T-note is yielding just 3.32%, a P/E of 15.0x based on 2010 and 13.4x based on 2011 earnings looks attractive.
Reasons for Optimism Going into 2011...
Much of the $600 billion in newly created money from QE2 is likely to eventually find its way into the equity market (not directly, but eventually). Historically, the year after mid-term elections has almost always been a good one for the stock market.
If passed, the extension of unemployment benefits and the one year cut in the payroll tax should be stimulative to the economy (the extension of the high-end tax cuts is only slightly simulative relative to letting them expire, and certainly does not provide any fresh stimulus to the economy). A stronger economy should allow earnings to continue to rise.
...And Pessimism
On the other hand, there is a very real prospect of total political gridlock, which would greatly raise uncertainty about governmental policy and the strength of the economy that could undermine confidence. The additional monetary stimulus from QE2 will help boost the economy a little bit, but that could very easily be offset by a concretionary fiscal policy.
The economy needs more fiscal stimulus, not less. The deal Obama worked out this week does that, although at a heavy cost in terms of increasing the deficit. The theoretical danger of QE2 is that it could lead to much higher inflation, but with the massive amount of slack in the economy right now, that risk seems pretty remote. QE2 should take the risk of deflation off the table.
The economy does seemed to have made a slow turn towards recovery. However, job creation remains very sluggish. Most of the real growth in the economy has come from higher productivity, not more hours being worked. Those productivity gains are accruing to capital, not labor, and are a major reason behind the strong earnings growth. In the third quarter, the firms in the S&P 500 earned a total of $208.1 billion, up from $166.0 billion in the third quarter of 2009.
Still, companies are expected to continue growing their earnings nicely, and the 11.4% expected growth for 2011, if achieved, means that the total earnings for the S&P 500 should hit a new record by the middle of next year. The fact that analysts are, on balance, still raising estimates for 2011 increases the odds that that growth will be achieved. Growth of 11.4% is not exactly awful. Even on the revenue side, the expected growth of 5.78% -- or 6.27% if one excludes the Financial sector -- is still pretty solid.
Then again, firms in the S&P 500 tend to get a significant portion of their revenues (and earnings) from overseas, and the world economy is likely to grow significantly faster than the U.S. economy in 2011. Clearly the analytical community is not expecting the economy to turn south again.
Scorecard & Earnings Surprise
Sales Surprises
Reported Quarterly Growth: Total Net Income
Quarterly Growth: Total Revenues Reported
Quarterly Net Margins Reported
Annual Total Net Income Growth
Annual Total Revenue Growth
Annual Net Margins
Revisions: Earnings
The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2010
Revisions: Earnings
The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2011
Total Income and Share
P/E Ratios
Biggest FY1 Revisions
The table below shows the S&P 500 firms with the biggest increases in their FY1 (mostly 2010) mean estimate over the last 4 weeks. To qualify there must be more than 3 estimates for FY1, and have a mean estimate of more than $0.50. In addition to the change in the mean estimate, the net percentage of estimates being raised is shown for both FY1 and FY2, as well as the P/E ratios based on each year's earnings is shown.
Note that estimate momentum and value are not mutually exclusive. The most interesting of these firms will be where the net revisions percentage (#up-#dn/Tot) is more than 0.50 but less than 1.00. Big mean estimate changes based on a handful of individual revisions are suspect, but could prove to be the most interesting if other analysts follow suit. On the other hand if all the analysts have raised their estimates already, the mean estimate is less likely to rise again over the next month.
Data in this report, unless stated otherwise, is through the close on Thursday 12/09/2010.
We use the convention of referring to the next full fiscal year to be completed as 2010, not all firms are on December fiscal years, this can cause discontinuities in the data, particularly around this time of year. The data is based on FY1, not based on 2010, even though I may call it 2010 in the report. All numbers, including historical ones, reflect the current composition of the S&P 500, thus some historical numbers may differ from those reported by S&P which are based on the composition of the index at the time of the reports.
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- Strong earnings season, with a median EPS surprise of 5.00%, and a 3.78 surprise ratio. While those numbers are down from earlier in the reporting season, they are still very good. Total of 359 positive surprises and just 95 disappointments. Positive year-over-year growth for 379, falling EPS for 117 firms, 3.24 ratio. 71.8% of all reporting firms do better than expected, 75.8% report positive year-over-year growth. Total net income reported up 25.3%.
- Sales Surprise ratio at 1.50, median surprise 0.79% -- 56.6% of all firms do better than expected on top line. Revenue growth healthy at 8.12%.
- Net margins unchanged from second quarter at 9.01% and far above 7.78% year-ago level. Financials mask underlying margin expansion. Excluding Financials, net margins rise to 8.05% from 7.90% in the second quarter and 6.99% a year ago.
- Total net income reported in 3Q is $208.1 billion, up from $166.0 billion a year ago, $205.8 billion in second quarter. Forth quarter expected to total $203.8 billion.
- Full-year total earnings for the S&P 500 expected to jump 43.1% in 2010, 11.4% further in 2011. Total revenues for the S&P 500 expected to rise 4.93% in 2010, 5.78% in 2011.
- Autos, Finance, Basic Materials and Energy expected to be earnings growth leaders in 2010. Construction expected to move from the red to the black. No sector expected to see earnings decline in 2010 or in 2011.
- Net Margins marching higher, from 5.88% in 2008 to 6.39% in 2009 to 8.72% expected for 2010, 9.18% expected for 2011. Major source of earnings growth. Net margins ex-Financials 7.79% in 2008, 7.09% in 2009, 8.15% expected for 2010, 8.49% in 2011.
- Revisions ratio for full S&P 500 at 1.75 for 2010, at 1.48 for 2011, both bullish readings. Ratio of firms with rising to falling mean estimates at 1.58 for 2010, 1.26 for 2011, also positive readings. Total revisions activity past peak, and plunging. Changes in revisions ratios driven by estimates falling out more than by new estimates added.
- S&P 500 earned $544.3 billion in 2009, expected to earn $779.2 billion in 2010, $868.0 billion in 2011.
- S&P 500 earned $57.62 in 2009: $82.20 in 2010 and $92.01 in 2011 expected, bottom-up. Puts P/Es at 21.4x for 2009, 15.0x for 2010, and 13.4x for 2011.
- Top-Down estimates: $80.34 for 2010, $91.02 for 2011.
The third quarter was a very strong one for earnings. The top line also looks good, especially if one excludes the financials. Soaring net margins have been the primary driver of the earnings growth.
Analysts have responded to the better-than-expected results by raising their estimates. The revisions ratio for 2010 has slipped a bit, but remains at a very healthy level of 1.75. For 2011, it is inching up and now stands at 1.48, which is also quite bullish.
However, we are well past the peak estimate revisions activity, which is now plunging. As a result, changes in the revisions ratios are being driven more by old estimates falling out of the four-week running total than new estimates being added. Some of the differential between 2010 and 2011 is “mechanical.”
Since the third quarter is part of fiscal year 2010, if a company beats by, say, $0.05, an analyst has to raise his fiscal year 2010 estimate or he is implicitly cutting his forecast for the fourth quarter. An increase for fiscal 2011 means that the analyst sees the better-than-expected results for the third quarter as being sustainable at least in the medium term.
Net Margin Expansion
The stellar earnings growth is mostly due to the continued expansion of net margins. Much of the year-over-year margin expansion is due to the Financials, where the whole concept of revenues is a bit different from most companies, and thus the concept of net margins is also a bit different.
However, even if the Financials are excluded, net margins continue to march northward. Earnings growth so far has been stellar at 25.3% year over year, although that is down from the over 30% levels we were seeing earlier in the reporting season. It is also a slowdown from the 37.1% year-over-year growth that the same firms reported in the second quarter.
Looking towards the fourth quarter, earnings growth is expected to continue to slow, but remain healthy on a year-over-year basis at 21.8%. However, three months ago, year-over-year growth for the third quarter was only expected to be 17.9%. I would not be hugely surprised if the year-over-year growth for the fourth quarter comes in north of 25%.
The expectations for the full year are very healthy, with total net income for 2010 expected to rise to $779.2 billion in 2010, up from $544.3 billion in 2009. In 2011, the total net income for the S&P 500 should be $868.0 billion, or increases of 43.1% and 11.4%, respectively. Translated to “EPS” for the index, that would be $57.62 for 2009, $82.20 for 2010, and $92.01 for 2011. In an environment where the 10-year T-note is yielding just 3.32%, a P/E of 15.0x based on 2010 and 13.4x based on 2011 earnings looks attractive.
Reasons for Optimism Going into 2011...
Much of the $600 billion in newly created money from QE2 is likely to eventually find its way into the equity market (not directly, but eventually). Historically, the year after mid-term elections has almost always been a good one for the stock market.
If passed, the extension of unemployment benefits and the one year cut in the payroll tax should be stimulative to the economy (the extension of the high-end tax cuts is only slightly simulative relative to letting them expire, and certainly does not provide any fresh stimulus to the economy). A stronger economy should allow earnings to continue to rise.
...And Pessimism
On the other hand, there is a very real prospect of total political gridlock, which would greatly raise uncertainty about governmental policy and the strength of the economy that could undermine confidence. The additional monetary stimulus from QE2 will help boost the economy a little bit, but that could very easily be offset by a concretionary fiscal policy.
The economy needs more fiscal stimulus, not less. The deal Obama worked out this week does that, although at a heavy cost in terms of increasing the deficit. The theoretical danger of QE2 is that it could lead to much higher inflation, but with the massive amount of slack in the economy right now, that risk seems pretty remote. QE2 should take the risk of deflation off the table.
The economy does seemed to have made a slow turn towards recovery. However, job creation remains very sluggish. Most of the real growth in the economy has come from higher productivity, not more hours being worked. Those productivity gains are accruing to capital, not labor, and are a major reason behind the strong earnings growth. In the third quarter, the firms in the S&P 500 earned a total of $208.1 billion, up from $166.0 billion in the third quarter of 2009.
Still, companies are expected to continue growing their earnings nicely, and the 11.4% expected growth for 2011, if achieved, means that the total earnings for the S&P 500 should hit a new record by the middle of next year. The fact that analysts are, on balance, still raising estimates for 2011 increases the odds that that growth will be achieved. Growth of 11.4% is not exactly awful. Even on the revenue side, the expected growth of 5.78% -- or 6.27% if one excludes the Financial sector -- is still pretty solid.
Then again, firms in the S&P 500 tend to get a significant portion of their revenues (and earnings) from overseas, and the world economy is likely to grow significantly faster than the U.S. economy in 2011. Clearly the analytical community is not expecting the economy to turn south again.
Scorecard & Earnings Surprise
- These are the final 3Q results; next week we will start looking more at the 4Q.
- Strong season with a median surprise of 5.00%, and a 3.78 surprise ratio (359 beats, 95 misses); 71.8% of all firms beat expectations.
- Positive year-over-year growth for 379, falling EPS for 117 firms -- a 3.24 ratio; 75.8% of all firms reporting have higher EPS than last year.
- Total net income up 25.34%. All sectors but Construction have more positive surprises than disappointments. Eight sectors have surprise ratios of 7:1 or better. Disappointments concentrated in Finance, Utility and Energy sectors.
| Income Surprises | Yr/Yr Growth | % Reported | Surprise Median | EPS Surp Pos | EPS Surp Neg | # Grow Pos | # Grow Neg |
| Consumer Discretionary | 18.20% | 100.00% | 7.89 | 23 | 6 | 29 | 4 |
| Industrial Products | 51.74% | 100.00% | 7.85 | 16 | 2 | 16 | 4 |
| Auto | 90.75% | 100.00% | 7.24 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Computer and Tech | 45.83% | 100.00% | 6.20 | 54 | 5 | 60 | 9 |
| Finance | 28.30% | 100.00% | 5.86 | 51 | 21 | 48 | 30 |
| Retail/Wholesale | 10.32% | 100.00% | 5.30 | 36 | 5 | 36 | 9 |
| Business Service | 15.55% | 100.00% | 4.76 | 17 | 1 | 16 | 3 |
| Oils and Energy | 37.50% | 100.00% | 4.62 | 23 | 13 | 30 | 8 |
| Conglomerates | 6.20% | 100.00% | 4.30 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 3 |
| Medical | 10.79% | 100.00% | 4.12 | 39 | 3 | 35 | 12 |
| Transportation | 65.17% | 100.00% | 4.00 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Consumer Staples | 5.31% | 100.00% | 3.00 | 26 | 8 | 25 | 12 |
| Aerospace | 144.50% | 100.00% | 2.83 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 2 |
| Basic Materials | 42.34% | 100.00% | 2.70 | 15 | 8 | 19 | 4 |
| Utilities | 6.37% | 100.00% | 2.47 | 24 | 14 | 31 | 12 |
| Construction | 1148.57% | 100.00% | 0.00 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| S&P | 25.34% | 100.00% | 5.00 | 359 | 95 | 379 | 117 |
Sales Surprises
- Sales Surprise ratio at 1.50, median surprise 0.785%, 56.6% of all firms do better than expected on top line.
- Growing Revenues outnumber falling revenues by ratio of 3.74; 78.6% of firms have higher revenues than a year ago.
- Tech, Finance and Business service see widespread positive revenue surprises.
- Revenue growth healthy at 8.12% but still greatly lags earnings growth pointing to net margin expansion (see net margin tables below).
| Sales Surprises | Yr/Yr Growth | % Reported | Surprise Median | Sales Surp Pos | Sales Surp Neg | # Grow Pos | # Grow Neg |
| Auto | 5.02% | 100.00% | 2.663 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Basic Materials | 17.45% | 100.00% | 2.654 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Finance | 1.82% | 100.00% | 2.529 | 39 | 12 | 50 | 28 |
| Computer and Tech | 20.33% | 100.00% | 1.544 | 52 | 18 | 63 | 7 |
| Business Service | 7.26% | 100.00% | 1.368 | 14 | 5 | 18 | 1 |
| Industrial Products | 23.21% | 100.00% | 1.358 | 13 | 7 | 17 | 3 |
| Construction | 3.06% | 100.00% | 1.188 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Oils and Energy | 16.11% | 100.00% | 0.828 | 23 | 15 | 33 | 5 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 3.59% | 100.00% | 0.564 | 20 | 13 | 25 | 8 |
| Retail/Wholesale | 3.71% | 100.00% | 0.415 | 27 | 18 | 38 | 7 |
| Medical | 8.50% | 100.00% | 0.07 | 24 | 23 | 32 | 14 |
| Transportation | 16.71% | 100.00% | -0.051 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Consumer Staples | 3.67% | 100.00% | -0.574 | 14 | 24 | 26 | 11 |
| Utilities | 5.59% | 100.00% | -0.835 | 20 | 23 | 34 | 9 |
| Conglomerates | -0.11% | 100.00% | -1.648 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Aerospace | 2.36% | 100.00% | -2.31 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 2 |
| S&P | 8.12% | 100.00% | 0.785 | 283 | 189 | 393 | 105 |
Reported Quarterly Growth: Total Net Income
- The total net income is 25.34% above what was reported in the third quarter of 2009, down from 37.08% growth in the second quarter. Sequential earnings growth is 1.11%.
- Thirteen sectors reporting showing double digit earnings growth, seven with more than 40% growth. Cyclical sectors lead the growth parade.
- Only four sectors showing acceleration in year-over-year growth from second quarter, twelve decelerate.
- Fourth quarter growth of 21.8% year over year, but down 2.5% sequentially. Finance, Industrials and Materials expected to lead year over year.
| Income Growth | Sequential Q4/Q3 E | Sequential Q3/Q2 A | Year over Year 3Q 10 A | Year over Year 4Q 10 E | Year over Year 2Q 10 A |
| Construction | -27.93% | -37.21% | 1148.57% | 8.60% | 1060.00% |
| Aerospace | 1.92% | -2.81% | 144.50% | -9.33% | -1.73% |
| Auto | -9.28% | -18.76% | 90.75% | 12.30% | 808.63% |
| Transportation | -4.11% | 5.16% | 65.17% | 28.70% | 73.88% |
| Industrial Products | -11.33% | 2.90% | 51.74% | 50.30% | 64.18% |
| Computer and Tech | 5.41% | 9.11% | 45.83% | 12.19% | 59.65% |
| Basic Materials | 10.70% | -12.87% | 42.34% | 43.39% | 114.14% |
| Oils and Energy | 1.68% | -9.58% | 37.50% | 25.31% | 95.23% |
| Finance | -7.14% | -4.87% | 28.30% | 164.96% | 40.60% |
| Consumer Discretionary | -8.78% | 19.38% | 18.20% | 4.11% | 26.24% |
| Business Service | 8.72% | 2.85% | 15.55% | 13.49% | 20.30% |
| Medical | -8.94% | -0.96% | 10.79% | 1.75% | 16.90% |
| Retail/Wholesale | 35.73% | -4.63% | 10.32% | 13.19% | 9.71% |
| Utilities | -29.99% | 21.54% | 6.37% | 0.03% | 6.87% |
| Conglomerates | -6.02% | 5.34% | 6.20% | -0.94% | -0.58% |
| Consumer Staples | -10.47% | 7.93% | 5.31% | 0.04% | 7.02% |
| S&P | -2.54% | 1.11% | 25.34% | 21.83% | 37.08% |
Quarterly Growth: Total Revenues Reported
- Five sectors reporting revenue growth of over 16%. Industrials and Tech in the lead, Materials, Transports and Energy also very strong.
- Seven sectors showing growth of less than 4%.
- S&P 500 reported Revenues up 8.12% year over year in 3Q, down from 10.69% revenue increase the same firms showed in the 2Q. This is still a very healthy level of revenue growth.
- Slowdown to 1.99% year-over-year growth expected for fourth quarter. Third quarter winners expected to continue to show strength.
| Sales Growth | Sequential Q4/Q3 E | Sequential Q3/Q2 A | Year over Year 3Q 10 A | Year over Year 4Q 10 E | Year over Year 2Q 09 A |
| Industrial Products | -1.46% | 3.32% | 23.21% | 18.92% | 19.11% |
| Computer and Tech | 0.22% | 4.26% | 20.33% | 11.75% | 22.17% |
| Basic Materials | 4.23% | -0.64% | 17.45% | 11.48% | 18.54% |
| Transportation | 1.16% | 1.22% | 16.71% | 12.49% | 20.20% |
| Oils and Energy | 2.91% | 1.31% | 16.11% | 7.75% | 27.70% |
| Medical | 2.66% | -0.58% | 8.50% | 2.43% | 10.09% |
| Business Service | 1.35% | 1.97% | 7.26% | 5.57% | 6.92% |
| Utilities | -5.34% | 10.73% | 5.59% | 7.21% | 1.98% |
| Auto | -1.79% | -6.73% | 5.02% | -6.91% | 26.09% |
| Retail/Wholesale | 3.45% | 0.03% | 3.71% | 6.22% | 4.20% |
| Consumer Staples | -10.21% | -1.38% | 3.67% | -4.38% | 7.27% |
| Consumer Discretionary | -1.40% | 4.27% | 3.59% | 4.92% | 7.94% |
| Construction | -7.98% | -1.86% | 3.06% | -4.83% | 7.90% |
| Aerospace | -2.60% | 2.47% | 2.36% | 1.25% | -2.25% |
| Finance | -21.65% | -0.12% | 1.82% | -19.57% | 3.74% |
| Conglomerates | -2.52% | -2.67% | -0.11% | 1.37% | 2.10% |
| S&P | 0.43% | 1.14% | 8.12% | 1.99% | 10.69% |
Quarterly Net Margins Reported
- Sector and S&P net margins are calculated as total net income for the sector divided by total revenues for the sector.
- Net margins for S&P 500 expand to 9.01% from 7.77% a year ago, and unchanged from the second quarter. Net margins ex-Financials rise to 8.05% from 6.99% a year ago.
- All sectors reporting year-over-year increases in margins, seven see sequential improvement.
- Some sectors will see bigger seasonal swings in margins than others.
- Six sectors report double-digit net margins, Tech consistent margin king.
| Net Margins | Q4 2010 Estimated | Q3 2010 Reported | 2Q 2010 Reported | 1Q 2010 Reported | 4Q 2009 Reported | 3Q 2009 Reported |
| Computer and Tech | 16.69% | 16.74% | 15.99% | 15.40% | 16.62% | 13.81% |
| Business Service | 12.63% | 12.11% | 12.01% | 11.62% | 11.75% | 11.24% |
| Consumer Staples | 11.00% | 11.87% | 10.84% | 10.61% | 10.52% | 11.68% |
| Finance | 12.80% | 10.96% | 11.51% | 11.13% | 3.89% | 8.70% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 8.79% | 10.26% | 8.96% | 9.24% | 8.85% | 8.99% |
| Medical | 8.97% | 10.13% | 10.17% | 10.17% | 9.03% | 9.93% |
| Conglomerates | 8.11% | 9.35% | 8.64% | 7.36% | 8.29% | 8.79% |
| Utilities | 6.36% | 9.08% | 8.27% | 8.03% | 6.82% | 9.01% |
| Transportation | 7.93% | 8.49% | 8.17% | 6.09% | 6.93% | 6.00% |
| Industrial Products | 7.20% | 7.87% | 7.90% | 6.18% | 5.70% | 6.39% |
| Oils and Energy | 7.27% | 7.11% | 7.96% | 7.31% | 6.26% | 6.00% |
| Aerospace | 6.23% | 6.44% | 6.79% | 5.94% | 6.96% | 2.70% |
| Basic Materials | 6.90% | 6.27% | 7.15% | 7.39% | 5.37% | 5.18% |
| Auto | 4.98% | 5.45% | 6.26% | 5.12% | 4.13% | 3.00% |
| Retail/Wholesale | 4.48% | 3.73% | 3.92% | 3.83% | 4.20% | 3.51% |
| Construction | 1.79% | 2.34% | 3.66% | 1.78% | 1.57% | 0.19% |
| S&P | 8.78% | 9.01% | 9.01% | 8.59% | 7.32% | 7.77% |
| S&P ex Fin'l | 7.93% | 8.05% | 7.90% | 7.48% | 7.26% | 6.99% |
Annual Total Net Income Growth
- Total S&P 500 Net Income in 2009 was 1.30% above 2008 levels, following 34.7% plunge in 2008.
- Total earnings for the S&P 500 expected to jump 42.9% in 2010, 13.9% further in 2011.
- Earnings recovery to happen by mid-2011, full-year 2011 earnings to be 6.1% above 2007 levels. In other words the recovery in earnings will occur far before the recovery in jobs as we are unlikely to return to 2007 job levels until mid 2015 at the earliest.
- Autos, Finance, Basic Materials and Energy expected to be earnings growth leaders in 2010. Construction expected to move from the red to the black. No sector expected to see earnings decline in 2010 or in 2011.
- Retail, Medical and Business Service the only sectors to post positive earnings growth in every year from 2008 through 2011.
- All but three sectors expected to post double-digit growth in 2011, cyclicals lead.
- Twelve sectors expected to grow slower in 2011 than 2010, four expected to see growth accelerate.
| Net Income Growth | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
| Construction | + to - | - to - | - to + | 193.63% |
| Basic Materials | -4.89% | -49.90% | 64.22% | 22.34% |
| Industrial Products | 6.93% | -38.63% | 41.32% | 17.19% |
| Transportation | 0.93% | -30.15% | 43.62% | 17.09% |
| Conglomerates | -9.24% | -23.83% | 1.37% | 16.52% |
| Business Service | 27.19% | 1.04% | 14.72% | 15.05% |
| Finance | + to - | - to + | 324.36% | 14.58% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 5.87% | -15.91% | 22.61% | 13.83% |
| Computer and Tech | 15.00% | -4.23% | 45.03% | 12.35% |
| Retail/Wholesale | 1.36% | 2.61% | 14.18% | 11.46% |
| Auto | + to - | - to + | 2159.50% | 10.16% |
| Oils and Energy | 20.81% | -56.29% | 48.64% | 9.90% |
| Consumer Staples | -7.86% | 5.60% | 10.99% | 9.02% |
| Medical | 9.31% | 2.17% | 8.34% | 5.73% |
| Utilities | -1.32% | -13.52% | 1.38% | 4.63% |
| Aerospace | 13.35% | -14.80% | 15.52% | 1.85% |
| S&P | -34.70% | 1.30% | 43.14% | 11.40% |
Annual Total Revenue Growth
- Total S&P 500 Revenue in 2009 6.74% below 2008 levels.
- Total revenues for the S&P 500 expected to rise 4.93% in 2010, 5.78% in 2011.
- Tech to lead 2010 revenue race, Energy and Industrials to take silver and bronze, but Transportation and Materials to also grow more than 13%.
- All sectors expected to show positive top line growth in 2011.
- Financials the biggest drag on 2010 revenue growth, Staples and Aerospace only other sectors expected to post lower top lines for the year. Revenues for Financials are notoriously flakey -- low interest rates depress interest income (but also interest expense).
- Revenue growth significantly different if Financials are excluded: down 10.46% in 2009, growth of 9.27% in 2010, and 6.27% in 2011.
- Medical and Retail only sectors to have positive revenue growth for all three years.
- Looking out to 2011, Energy and Industrials the only sectors expected to see double-digit revenue growth, although three other sectors expected to have revenue growth over 8%.
| Sales Growth | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
| Oils and Energy | -34.49% | 18.49% | 10.89% |
| Industrial Products | -18.67% | 16.85% | 10.30% |
| Construction | -15.92% | 0.29% | 8.70% |
| Auto | -21.36% | 6.12% | 8.30% |
| Transportation | -13.65% | 13.74% | 8.12% |
| Computer and Tech | -6.22% | 22.31% | 7.18% |
| Basic Materials | -19.30% | 14.55% | 6.83% |
| Business Service | -2.35% | 7.35% | 6.38% |
| Consumer Discretionary | -9.55% | 7.48% | 6.22% |
| Retail/Wholesale | 1.25% | 5.58% | 5.57% |
| Consumer Staples | -2.13% | -3.33% | 5.29% |
| Aerospace | 6.30% | -0.09% | 5.01% |
| Medical | 6.06% | 9.31% | 3.72% |
| Utilities | -5.87% | 4.02% | 2.37% |
| Conglomerates | -13.27% | 0.69% | 2.31% |
| Finance | 21.16% | -19.20% | 2.07% |
| S&P | -6.74% | 4.93% | 5.78% |
| Excl Fin'l | -10.45% | 9.27% | 6.27% |
Annual Net Margins
- Net Margins marching higher, from 5.88% in 2008 to 6.39% in 2009 to 8.72% expected for 2010, 9.18% expected for 2011. Major source of earnings growth.
- Financials significantly distort overall net margins. Net margins ex-financials 7.78% in 2008, 7.09% in 2009, 8.15% expected for 2010, 8.49% in 2011.
- Financials net margins soar from -8.42% in 2008 to 14.59% expected for 2011.
- Fourteen sectors seeing higher net margins in 2010 than in 2009. All sectors but Aerospace expected to post higher net margins in 2011 than in 2010.
| Net Margins | 2008A | 2009A | 2010E | 2011E | |
| Computer and Tech | 12.25% | 12.51% | 14.84% | 15.55% | |
| Finance | -8.42% | 2.47% | 13.00% | 14.59% | |
| Business Service | 10.74% | 11.11% | 11.87% | 12.84% | |
| Consumer Staples | 9.18% | 9.90% | 11.37% | 11.77% | |
| Medical | 10.11% | 9.73% | 9.65% | 9.84% | |
| Conglomerates | 9.29% | 8.16% | 8.21% | 9.36% | |
| Consumer Discretionary | 8.00% | 7.44% | 8.48% | 9.09% | |
| Transportation | 7.26% | 5.87% | 7.41% | 8.03% | |
| Utilities | 8.74% | 8.03% | 7.83% | 8.00% | |
| Oils and Energy | 9.10% | 6.07% | 7.62% | 7.55% | |
| Basic Materials | 7.20% | 4.47% | 6.41% | 7.34% | |
| Industrial Products | 7.51% | 5.67% | 6.85% | 7.28% | |
| Aerospace | 6.77% | 5.43% | 6.27% | 6.08% | |
| Auto | -2.82% | 0.25% | 5.22% | 5.31% | |
| Retail/Wholesale | 3.49% | 3.54% | 3.83% | 4.04% | |
| Construction | -2.33% | -0.10% | 1.14% | 3.07% | |
| S&P 500 | 5.88% | 6.39% | 8.72% | 9.18% | |
| Excl Fin'l | 7.78% | 7.09% | 8.15% | 8.49% | |
Revisions: Earnings
The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2010
- Revisions ratio for full S&P 500 at 1.75, down from 2.08 last week, still a very bullish reading.
- Seven sectors with revisions ratios above 2.0, three with ratios above 3.0. Retail and Industrials lead.
- Thirteen sectors with positive revisions ratios, only three below 1.0.
- Construction and Conglomerates very weak.
- Ratio of firms with rising to falling mean estimates at 1.58 down from 1.89 last week, still a bullish reading.
- Total number of revisions (4-week total) up to 1,538 from 2,297 (-33.0%).
- Increases up to 979 from 1,585 (-38.2%), cuts down to 559 from 712 (-21.5%).
- Total Revisions activity plunging and getting close to seasonal low point. Changes in revisions ratios are mostly from old estimates falling out, not from new estimates being made.
| Sector | %Ch Curr Fiscal Yr Est - 4 wks | # Firms Up | # Firms Down | # Ests Up | # Ests Down | Revisions Ratio | Firms up/down |
| Retail/Wholesale | -0.86 | 31 | 12 | 256 | 74 | 3.46 | 2.58 |
| Industrial Products | 0.35 | 8 | 7 | 29 | 9 | 3.22 | 1.14 |
| Transportation | 0.44 | 9 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 3.00 | #DIV/0! |
| Computer and Tech | -0.03 | 32 | 19 | 187 | 70 | 2.67 | 1.68 |
| Basic Materials | 0.24 | 15 | 5 | 24 | 9 | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 0.18 | 17 | 9 | 93 | 46 | 2.02 | 1.89 |
| Auto | -0.26 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| Medical | 0.18 | 24 | 19 | 57 | 39 | 1.46 | 1.26 |
| Finance | 1.08 | 38 | 30 | 96 | 73 | 1.32 | 1.27 |
| Consumer Staples | -0.28 | 23 | 10 | 64 | 50 | 1.28 | 2.30 |
| Business Service | 0.08 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 12 | 1.25 | 1.80 |
| Utilities | 0.08 | 22 | 16 | 34 | 28 | 1.21 | 1.38 |
| Oils and Energy | -1.61 | 18 | 17 | 84 | 80 | 1.05 | 1.06 |
| Aerospace | -0.19 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 0.58 | 1.25 |
| Construction | -3.61 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 24 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| Conglomerates | -0.28 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 26 | 0.27 | 0.50 |
| S&P | -0.08 | 263 | 166 | 979 | 559 | 1.75 | 1.58 |
Revisions: Earnings
The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2011
- Revisions ratio for full S&P 500 at 1.58, up from 1.47 last week, still in bullish territory.
- Six sectors have at least two increases per cut, Industrials and Transports lead, other cyclicals also strong.
- Six sectors with negative revisions ratios (below 1.0), ten with ratios above 1.0.
- Ratio of firms with rising estimate to falling mean estimates at 1.26 down from 1.33; still in bullish territory.
- Construction looks very weak for 2011, over five cuts per increase.
- Total number of revisions (4-week total) at 1,631, down from 2,215 (-26.3%).
- Increases down to 973 from 1,318 (-26.2%) cuts fall to 658 from 897 (-26.6%).
| Sector | %Ch Next Fiscal Yr Est - 4 wks | # Firms Up | # Firms Down | # Ests Up | # Ests Down | Revisions Ratio | Firms up/down |
| Industrial Products | 0.64 | 11 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 5.00 | 2.20 |
| Transportation | 0.49 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 4 | 4.50 | 3.50 |
| Basic Materials | 1.17 | 15 | 4 | 32 | 10 | 3.20 | 3.75 |
| Auto | -0.08 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2.50 | 2.00 |
| Retail/Wholesale | -0.52 | 27 | 15 | 239 | 102 | 2.34 | 1.80 |
| Computer and Tech | 0.41 | 31 | 19 | 155 | 73 | 2.12 | 1.63 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 0.23 | 19 | 8 | 71 | 38 | 1.87 | 2.38 |
| Finance | 0.03 | 38 | 32 | 115 | 65 | 1.77 | 1.19 |
| Conglomerates | 1.93 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 14 | 1.43 | 0.80 |
| Medical | 0.00 | 24 | 18 | 71 | 56 | 1.27 | 1.33 |
| Oils and Energy | -0.38 | 17 | 21 | 94 | 103 | 0.91 | 0.81 |
| Utilities | -0.47 | 17 | 20 | 47 | 58 | 0.81 | 0.85 |
| Consumer Staples | -0.40 | 15 | 18 | 47 | 66 | 0.71 | 0.83 |
| Aerospace | -0.32 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 22 | 0.50 | 0.29 |
| Business Service | -0.39 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 20 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Construction | -7.07 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 18 | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| S&P | -0.12 | 240 | 190 | 973 | 658 | 1.48 | 1.26 |
Total Income and Share
- S&P 500 earned $544.3 billion in 2009, expected to earn $779.2 billion in 2010, $868.0 billion in 2011.
- Finance share of total earnings moves from 5.9% in 2009 to 17.5% in 2010, 18.0% in 2011, regains total earnings crown.
- Medical share of total earnings far exceeds market cap share (index weight), but earnings share expected to shrink from 17.3% in 2009 to 12.4% in 2011.
- Market Cap shares of Construction, Retail, Transportation, Industrials and Business Service sectors far exceed both 2010 and 2011 earnings shares.
- Finance and Autos have rising earnings shares and market cap shares well below 2011 earnings shares.
- Staples, Utilities and Medical's share of total net income falling rapidly.
| Income ($ Bill) | Total Net Income $ 2009 | Total Net Income $ 2010 | Total Net Income $ 2011 | % Total S&P Earn 2009 | % Total S&P Earn 2010 | % Total S&P Earn 2011 | % Total S&P Mkt Cap |
| Finance | $32,104 | $136,237 | $156,099 | 5.90% | 17.49% | 17.98% | 16.02% |
| Computer and Tech | $91,891 | $133,271 | $149,728 | 16.88% | 17.10% | 17.25% | 18.25% |
| Medical | $94,163 | $102,016 | $107,864 | 17.30% | 13.09% | 12.43% | 10.12% |
| Oils and Energy | $62,514 | $92,924 | $102,122 | 11.48% | 11.93% | 11.77% | 11.23% |
| Consumer Staples | $56,879 | $63,133 | $68,830 | 10.45% | 8.10% | 7.93% | 8.55% |
| Retail/Wholesale | $50,630 | $57,810 | $64,438 | 9.30% | 7.42% | 7.42% | 8.53% |
| Utilities | $49,644 | $50,332 | $52,663 | 9.12% | 6.46% | 6.07% | 6.08% |
| Consumer Discretionary | $23,022 | $28,227 | $32,131 | 4.23% | 3.62% | 3.70% | 4.39% |
| Conglomerates | $26,222 | $26,582 | $30,974 | 4.82% | 3.41% | 3.57% | 3.74% |
| Basic Materials | $13,463 | $22,109 | $27,048 | 2.47% | 2.84% | 3.12% | 3.34% |
| Industrial Products | $10,790 | $15,248 | $17,868 | 1.98% | 1.96% | 2.06% | 2.46% |
| Aerospace | $12,958 | $14,970 | $15,247 | 2.38% | 1.92% | 1.76% | 1.59% |
| Business Service | $11,495 | $13,187 | $15,171 | 2.11% | 1.69% | 1.75% | 2.06% |
| Transportation | $8,151 | $11,707 | $13,708 | 1.50% | 1.50% | 1.58% | 1.98% |
| Auto | $469 | $10,587 | $11,662 | 0.09% | 1.36% | 1.34% | 1.16% |
| Construction | ($74) | $820 | $2,406 | -0.01% | 0.11% | 0.28% | 0.50% |
| S&P | $544,320 | $779,159 | $867,960 | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
P/E Ratios
- Trading at 15.0x 2010, 13.4x 2011 earnings, or earnings yields of 6.67% and 7.46%, respectively.
- Earnings Yields still attractive relative to 10-year T-Note rate of 3.32%, but less so than in recent months.
- Medical has lowest P/E based on 2010 and 2011 earnings. Autos and Finance also cheap based on 2011 earnings.
- Construction has highest P/E for 2010 and 2011.
- Auto and Finance high 2009 P/Es to fall dramatically in 2010 and 2011.
- S&P 500 earned $57.62 in 2009: $82.20 in 2010 and $92.01 in 2011 expected.
| P/E | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
| Medical | 12.8 | 12.5 | 11.6 | 10.9 |
| Oils and Energy | NM | 289.5 | 12.8 | 11.6 |
| Aerospace | NM | 58.2 | 13.7 | 12.0 |
| Finance | 12.2 | 14.3 | 12.4 | 12.2 |
| Auto | 9.2 | 21.0 | 14.1 | 12.8 |
| Utilities | 12.4 | 14.3 | 14.1 | 13.5 |
| Basic Materials | 12.7 | 16.6 | 16.4 | 14.1 |
| Consumer Staples | 22.2 | 23.2 | 16.0 | 14.2 |
| Conglomerates | 14.5 | 28.9 | 17.6 | 14.4 |
| Computer and Tech | 18.5 | 17.5 | 15.8 | 14.5 |
| Retail/Wholesale | 20.2 | 19.7 | 17.2 | 15.4 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 21.1 | 20.9 | 18.2 | 15.8 |
| Industrial Products | 18.7 | 22.2 | 18.1 | 15.9 |
| Busines Service | 16.3 | 26.6 | 18.8 | 16.1 |
| Transportation | 19.8 | 28.3 | 19.7 | 16.9 |
| Construction | NM | NM | 71.1 | 24.2 |
| S&P 500 | 21.7 | 21.4 | 15.0 | 13.4 |
Biggest FY1 Revisions
The table below shows the S&P 500 firms with the biggest increases in their FY1 (mostly 2010) mean estimate over the last 4 weeks. To qualify there must be more than 3 estimates for FY1, and have a mean estimate of more than $0.50. In addition to the change in the mean estimate, the net percentage of estimates being raised is shown for both FY1 and FY2, as well as the P/E ratios based on each year's earnings is shown.
Note that estimate momentum and value are not mutually exclusive. The most interesting of these firms will be where the net revisions percentage (#up-#dn/Tot) is more than 0.50 but less than 1.00. Big mean estimate changes based on a handful of individual revisions are suspect, but could prove to be the most interesting if other analysts follow suit. On the other hand if all the analysts have raised their estimates already, the mean estimate is less likely to rise again over the next month.
| Company | Ticker | %Ch Curr Fiscal Yr Est - 4 wks | %Ch Next Fiscal Yr Est - 4 wks | # Up-Dn/Tot %Ch Curr Fiscal Yr Est - 4 wks | # Up-Dn/Tot %Ch Next Fiscal Yr Est - 4 wks | P/E using Curr FY Est | P/E using Next FY Est |
| Coventry Hlthcr | CVH | 27.62% | 6.02% | 1.00 | 0.71 | 7.34 | 9.41 |
| Dell Inc | DELL | 10.00% | 4.59% | 0.83 | 0.66 | 9.68 | 9.12 |
| Rockwell Automt | ROK | 8.43% | 7.81% | 1.00 | 0.45 | 16.87 | 14.45 |
| Aetna Inc-New | AET | 8.25% | 1.20% | 0.60 | 0.24 | 8.53 | 9.51 |
| Helmerich&Payne | HP | 8.20% | 4.65% | 0.68 | 0.54 | 15.09 | 13.95 |
| Polo Ralph Laur | RL | 7.85% | 6.18% | 0.93 | 0.86 | 20.97 | 18.47 |
| Qualcomm Inc | QCOM | 6.36% | 11.10% | 0.80 | 0.67 | 19.89 | 17.22 |
| Scripps Netwrks | SNI | 6.24% | 3.88% | 0.67 | 0.63 | 22.27 | 19.77 |
| Public Storage | PSA | 5.69% | 1.73% | 0.76 | 0.76 | 21.05 | 18.17 |
| Intl F & F | IFF | 5.56% | 5.13% | 0.91 | 0.91 | 16.09 | 14.65 |
| Amer Tower Corp | AMT | 5.28% | 6.60% | 0.85 | 0.79 | 55.10 | 45.19 |
| Priceline.Com | PCLN | 5.21% | 13.97% | 1.00 | 1.00 | 33.95 | 24.95 |
| Tiffany & Co | TIF | 5.19% | 5.51% | 0.75 | 0.73 | 23.03 | 20.34 |
Data in this report, unless stated otherwise, is through the close on Thursday 12/09/2010.
We use the convention of referring to the next full fiscal year to be completed as 2010, not all firms are on December fiscal years, this can cause discontinuities in the data, particularly around this time of year. The data is based on FY1, not based on 2010, even though I may call it 2010 in the report. All numbers, including historical ones, reflect the current composition of the S&P 500, thus some historical numbers may differ from those reported by S&P which are based on the composition of the index at the time of the reports.
AETNA INC-NEW (AET): Free Stock Analysis Report
COVENTRY HLTHCR (CVH): Free Stock Analysis Report
DELL INC (DELL): Free Stock Analysis Report
HELMERICH&PAYNE (HP): Free Stock Analysis Report
ROCKWELL AUTOMT (ROK): Free Stock Analysis Report
Zacks Investment Research
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