Dahlman Rose Lowers MEOH 4Q10 Estimate

Dahlman Rose has lowered its 4Q10 estimate on Methanex Corporation MEOH due mostly to higher operational expenses “but have maintained our 2011 estimate as we expect a healthy demand environment and a favorable mix shift toward produced products to drive y/y earnings growth as Methanex ramps its Egypt project and restarts its Alberta operations.” “While we expect robust demand and pricing during the quarter, we are lowering our 4Q10 earnings estimate to $0.30 from $0.44 based on an increase in stock-based compensation expense,” Dahlman Rose writes. “The 25% increase in the share price during the quarter will impact earnings by about $0.10-$0.12 per share. The remainder of the decrease is a result of some short-term gas curtailments in Trinidad during 4Q. These curtailments were for a period of about 10 days and have since been lifted. The curtailments were due to maintenance downtime by Trinidad gas authorities.” Methanex Corporation currently trades at $28.69.