Dish Network's Bull Case Is Still Too Tough To Call - A Scenario Analysis

Macquire Research's Amy Yong reiterated Dish's DISH Neutral rating with a price target of $62.00 coming just before Dish's second quasi-Analyst Day. The Broadcast Incentive Auction beginning on May 31st could provide growth for Dish according to the analyst. Since Liberty Global and Google are no longer expected to participate in the bid, Yong lowered her auction estimate to $35-40bn, limiting competition between AT&T T, Verizon VZ, T-Mobile TMUS, Comcast, CMSCA and Dish. Additionally, further catalysts for the company could include:

• 30% chance of a Spectrum lease and Pay TV spin-off "which could bring the stock to ~$730.00:"
• 30% chance of a Dish T-Mobile Merger bringing the stock price up to $66.00:
• 30% chance of a Verizon or AT&T acquisition at $75.00:
• 10% chance of Organically "building out the network" at ~5% p.a. which "could bring the stock down to ~$19.00:"

Based on the analyst's probabilities listed above, Yong's scenario analysis values Dish at about $61.00.