Make Or Break Time For Colombia ETF?

We don't like putting pressure on a specific ETF, at least not to this degree, but take a look at the chart of the Global X/InterBolsa FTSE Colombia 20 ETF GXG, one of the darlings of the 2010 emerging markets surge and you'll see a couple of curious things. First, the ETF got taken to the woodshed starting in November, as so many of its emerging market ETF counterparts did. OK, no big deal, we know that story already. Second, and far more concerning, is this: The energy sector accounts for more than 44% of GXG's weight. Ecopetrol EC, Colombia's state-run oil company, gets an allocation of more than 21% in the ETF. Oil and Ecopetrol are up in the past month. GXG is down, albeit slightly. Colombia is the "C" in the CIVETS acronym, but that hasn't helped GXG rally on the Egypt situation, despite the boon it has been for oil prices, another concerning factor. Now we look at GXG's chart and see the ETF has consolidated in a tight range in over the past two weeks, nestling itself right in between critical support and resistance in a triangle pattern. A break out from here would be very bullish and perhaps carry the ETF back to the $45-$47 area. A breakdown means the first stopping point is $38.50 and from there things get ugly. GXG is one of those ETFs investors want to embrace, but if the fund cannot regain some near-term positive correlation to rising oil prices, it might be in trouble. If that's case, come back to GXG later this year, because chances are it will generate positive returns on a yearly basis.