In a pair of new reports, analysts at Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse take a close look at the unpredictable global oil market. WTI oil prices nearly doubled from their 2016 low of $26.05/bbl back in February to their 2016 high of $51.67 in June. However, since the June peak, prices slumped as low as $39.19 before bouncing back to around the $45 level.
A few key charts included in the Wall Street reports shed some light on what exactly is going on in the global oil market lately. The Morgan Stanley chart of Global Day Rates for oil rig floaters shows rates that are dropping like a rock.
Despite the glut in global crude supply, OPEC production continues to shatter previous record levels. Saudi production and rig counts remain elevated.
While non-Saudi global production appears to have peaked, it remains near record levels as well.
Commitment of Traders data from shows recent market sentiment shifting from long to short.
U.S. crude oil imports are surging as oil is brought on-short from tankers along the Gulf Coast.
Despite surprisingly bullish comments of late from OPEC and the EIA, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Longston is bearish in the medium term.
“The problem is that fundamentals tend to be a stronger driver medium term, and the picture appears skewed negative over the coming months,” he explained.
The United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) USO opened the week up 1.4 percent in early Monday trading.
Do you have ideas for articles/interviews you'd like to see more of on Benzinga? Please email feedback@benzinga.com with your best article ideas. One person will be randomly selected to win a $20 Amazon gift card!© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Trade confidently with insights and alerts from analyst ratings, free reports and breaking news that affects the stocks you care about.
