The brokerage still sees potential for meaningful revenues, driven by a higher likelihood of Selinexor's ultimate success in MM. Despite the MM market being crowded, Jefferies believes there is still room for additional entrants — especially for those that provide novel mechanisms, like Selinexor — in later-line patients and in combinations.
"We believe evolving efficacy/safety data, coupled with mgmt's expertise in the disease area and the continuing unmet need, increases the likelihood (our POS increases to 55 percent from 30 percent) Selinexor will ultimately reach the mkt and generate MM sales of >$500 million by 2025," analyst Brian Abrahams wrote in a note.
Meanwhile, Selinexor is currently in 35 studies exploring multiple tumor types, increasing the potential to optimize indication, dosing and combination.
Based on preclinical results, Abrahams believes that data from next-gen XPO1 inhibitor '8602 later this year offer another means to exploit the potential of that agent to target the mechanism with fewer side effects with lower side effects. In addition, the PAK4/NAMPT inhibitor '9274 could potentially broaden the company's long-term opportunity.
"Though Selinexor's narrow therapeutic window remains the biggest limitation, recent studies (e.g., STOMP) at more optimized doses appear based on our analysis to suggest more acceptable AEs," Abrahams added.
Abrahams also raised the price target to $12 from $9, while the shares closed Monday's trading at $7.12.
At time of writing, Karyopharm shares were up 19.51 percent at $8.51 within the first half hour of Tuesday's regular trading session.
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