Survey: 84% Of Investors Expect AT&T-Time Warner Deal Approval

AT&T Inc. T's $85 billion proposed acquisition of Time Warner Inc TWX will face regulatory scrutiny before approval.

AT&T's offer values Time Warner's stock at $107.50 per share, yet the media empire's stock was trading at $87.25 early Tuesday morning. The notable discount to the take-out price may signal the market isn't convinced a deal would be approved in the first place.

Todd Juenger of Bernstein conducted an informal and anonymous survey of buy-side investors to gauge sentiment among his peers. Through the analyst's own admission, his brief survey is unscientific and not representative, yet still contains "useful information value."

Related Link: T-Mobile's CEO Couldn't Be More Excited About AT&T-Time Warner Deal

Survey's In

Juenger's informal study results showed 84 percent of buy-side analysts surveyed are optimistic that AT&T will succeed in acquiring Time Warner.

Among those surveyed, 38 percent are long just Time Warner's stock, 4 percent are long just AT&T's stock and 9 percent are long both equities. Of particular note, the survey didn't find any significant differences in any of the answers based on whether the respondents were long, short or neutral the stocks.

However, 35 percent of the analysts believe it will happen only after the fourth quarter of 2017. Juenger suggested that even with a 100 percent confidence in approval in the fourth quarter of next year, the stock would be valued in the high-$90s today.

Finally, 41 percent of the respondents believe AT&T will reverse the deal or break the pieces of apart within five years, and 65 percent believe this will occur within 10 years.

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