Gamblers Are Hedging Their Election Bets, But Clinton Remains Heavy Favorite

A pair of election polls out on Friday by Rasmussen reports and IBD/TIPP show Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump tied ahead of Tuesday’s election. An ABC/Washington Post poll puts Clinton ahead by 3 percent, and an LATimes/Washington Post poll has Trump ahead by 4 percent.

After a recent surge by Trump, the polls indicate a race that may be too close to call. However, data from the world’s largest internet betting exchange, Betfair, indicates Clinton remains a heavy favorite to win the election.

As of Friday, Betfair market gamblers were giving Clinton a 74.9 percent chance of victory compared to just a 24.1 percent chance for Trump.

According to electionbettingodds.com, the Betfair numbers imply a 323–215 electoral college victory for Clinton in the election.

Polls have shown that Trump received a boost following the recent FBI discovery of a new set of Clinton private server emails from her time as Secretary of State.

The Betfair data is also showing bets on Trump are on the rise as well. Trump’s betting odds of winning the election are up 5.7 percent in the past week alone, although they remain down slightly from one month ago.

Many speculators view the gambling market as more reliable than poll data becausep participants have real money on the line. However, gamblers are far from perfect when it comes to predictions.

Just this year, a number of U.K. bookies had placed the odds of a Brexit vote at around 10 percent ahead of the surprising outcome.

Trump supporters are hoping for a similar surprise on Election Day.