For Nokia, Things Will Get Worse Before They Get Better

The sharper-than-expected decline in the communications equipment market would likely keep Nokia Corp’s NOK stock range bound in the near term.

BMO Capital Markets’ Tim Long downgraded the rating on the company from Outperform to Market Perform, while reducing the price target from $6 to $4.

Management’s execution on the Alcatel Lucent SA ALU merger has been impressive, generating more synergies than were widely anticipated, Long mentioned.

“[W]e were way off on how bad the communications equipment market would be this year,” Long wrote. He added that Nokia’s stock may remain within a trading range until sales normalize.

The EPS estimate for 2017 have been reduced from €0.21 to €0.19, reflecting management’s guidance and a reduction in Networks operating margin estimate to approximately 9 percent.

Capital Markets Day

Nokia hosted its capital markets day in Barcelona.

“Our takeaways are mixed,” the analyst commented. While management projected growth opportunities in adjacent markets, spending in the service provider space would likely remain almost flat through 2021.

“Furthermore, things will get worse before they get better, as 5G-related opportunities are still on the horizon and macro challenges in emerging markets and elsewhere will persist into 2017,” Long stated.