Avner Mandelman, co-director of Venator Capital Management, believes that
U.S. Treasuries are a buy here for a few reasons.
Mandelman says that the supposed bankruptcy of the U.S. isn't going to happen. Mandelman believes that the wars in 1991 and 2003 proved the power of America, and bull markets were seen after these wars.
Second, Mandelman says that the tensions in the Middle East, as well as near-bankruptcies in parts of Europe will once again showcase the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency, as investors seek safe havens.
Mandelman says that with rising commodity prices, the economy won't be acting at full capacity, which will in turn force Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve to keep long-term interest rates low.
Now, what about inflation, the enemy of long bonds?
Mandelman is not pessimistic on the growth in money supply (M2), and believes that a modest rise in M2 will lead to modest inflation. He expects short-term rates to rise a bit, but long-term rates to fall.
He concludes that U.S. long term bonds are a good trading opportunity. Investors and traders can play this by going long iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond ETF
TLT, which tracks longer term U.S. debt.
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TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
$87.86-0.05%
Edge Rankings
Momentum
44.30
Price Trend
Short
Medium
Long
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