Was The 'Trump Rally' Really Any Different From The Bush Or Clinton Rallies?

Given President Donald Trump’s enthusiasm for taking credit, he has already been tweeting about how well the economy and the stock market has been doing during his first two months in office.

Back on February 16, Trump tweeted about how optimistic investors were about his policy plans.

Stock market hits new high with longest winning streak in decades. Great level of confidence and optimism - even before tax plan rollout!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 16, 2017
 

In the roughly two months Trump has been in office, the "Trump Rally" has carried the SPDR 500 ETF Trust SPY up 5.1 percent. That’s certainly a strong performance, but is it any better than the market performed in the first two months of previous administrations?

As it turns out, the answer is an emphatic “yes.” 

Two of the previous four presidents endured major market selloffs in their first two months in office. Of course, everyone remembers that former President Barack Obama took office during the heart of the Financial Crisis. During his first two months in office, the SPY declined 4.8 percent. Former President George W. Bush took over in January 2001 during the middle of the previous U.S. recession. The SPY plummeted an incredible 15.4 percent during his first two months in office.

The market rallied during the first two months former Presidents George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton were in the White House, but only by 1.1 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively.

Regardless of how they feel about his ideology, investors have to give it up for Trump so far when it comes to early market returns. Of course, the full story of Trump’s economic prowess as president will not be complete until either four or eight years down the road.

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