Foursquare Makes Another Data-Based Prediction—And It Thinks It Knows The Winner In Gym Stock Earnings

Foursquare CEO Jeff Glueck famously predicted a major slump in Chipotle’s CMG 2016 first-quarter comps that sent the stock tumbling. Glueck’s prediction was based on the company’s analysis of foot traffic data collected by Foursquare’s family of apps.

Now, Foursquare data shows that Americans who exercise have a clear preference for one chain of fitness centers and that investors should take note.

In a Medium post, Foursquare editor Sarah Spagnolo analyzes foot traffic stats at both traditional gyms and “boutique fitness centers” to get a picture of where Americans are exercising. The overall picture is that while there’s been a 2-percent increase in gym visits year over year in 2017, there’s been a 2-percent decline in unique visits. That might mean gym-goers are exercising more frequently, but there are fewer overall people pumping iron at the gym.

However, the key point for investors is Spagnolo’s conclusion that nearly a quarter of all gym goers go to a Planet Fitness Inc PLNT.

“As luxe gyms and boutique fitness studios fight for a small piece of the pie, Planet Fitness has been growing its larger share at 10% YoY,” Spagnolo wrote. “Now those are stats of a champion we’d bet on.”

Spagnolo also discusses larger trends facing the exercise industry, such as the battle between high-end multidiscipline gyms and “singular focus” studios like SoulCycle.

“After a highly competitive 2015–2016, high-end, multi-sport gyms successfully lured athletes away from more singular focused gyms,” she wrote.

Spagnolo noted that other national chains like 24 Hour Fitness and Snap Fitness as well as several regional chains lost 5 percent of their gym share visit last year.

Planet Fitness is expected to report quarterly earnings August 10, according to Nasdaq.

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