A Market View From Happy Hour - Beyond The Debt Limit Crisis

There are two camps of thought as to what is going to happen with the standoff over raising the debt limit: we either move beyond this crisis, be it with a bipartisan effort or Article 14 exercise, or the US enters uncharted waters as it runs out of money to pay its bills. The latter is up for speculation since it will be the first time Congress and the Presidency will have allowed such an event to occur, so there isn't a defined history of activity to look back upon and determine how financial markets will handle the event. A thought gaining the most traction is that the FED would be forced to cut interest rates this year, something they adamantly said many times that they will not do. On the other hand, the former is expected to happen, just as it did in 2011, with an 11th hour deal being made to stave off financial catastrophe. It is important that investors understand how routine raising the debt limit ceiling is. We don't hear about this common act occurring because the decision to use the ability to create more debt is quietly pushed through in partisan fashion and only serves to rile up attention when such posturing is needed to sway opinion and votes. This is an entirely politically manufactured crisis and once it is over, we will simply go back to the way things were. So if you believe, as many do, that we are not headed for default, it would serve anyone well to look beyond the debt limit crisis for the next events that will weigh on markets.

With today's FOMC Meeting Minutes indicating that there is a difference of opinion among FED members as to whether continuing raising the FED Funds Rate is appropriate or not, the economic data leading into their next FOMC Meeting is going to be closely watched. The FED will get PCE data on Friday before a long weekend, the May Jobs report on June 2nd, and CPI on June 13th, the day before their next decision. The big concern for the FED right now, aside from the debt limit ceiling, is that inflation will remain sticky. The previous rate raise has been largely expected to be the final one this year, but with the Meeting Minutes as well as some recent comments from FED members, we might not be done.

Tomorrow's economic news will be highlighted by the second estimate for the first quarter GDP. While this is a heavyweight among economic data, one the FED will definitely look at, it is PCE on Friday that they will give the most consideration ahead of their next meeting. While the CPI sources data from consumers and concerns out-of-pocket costs, PCE sources data from businesses and concerns costs made for consumers. As we have producers and consumers, and the data of PCE tells the tale of the producer side.

Today's movement completely broke down through multiple support levels over the debt limit crisis and the FOMC Meeting Minutes, and could not recover much until after the market close. The glimmer of hope with today's candle is that we found a low just under 410 and then tried to recapture the losses. With the 50 Day SMA in the area of today's low, bulls are hoping it provides support should we continue lower tomorrow while bears are enjoying the results of today's gap down and are growling for more. Also in the area for support is the bottom of the Frequent Sideways Area indicated on this SPY SPY chart. The RSI broke the uptrend it had enjoyed for the past few months and is poised to retest the uptrend line on bargain hunters coming in to snatch up the dip and on the massive move in semiconductor stocks off of NVDA NVDA earnings. We have also breached the 20 handle on the VIX VIX for the second time this month which may signal the market is becoming more fearful of the strength in equities.

Even with the debt limit crisis looming, it is important not to get hung up on any one event. The market has been referred to as a living organism that breathes as regularly as we do and while there are events that can result in movement effectively described as a "cough" the market will still inhale to keep on living. So try not to let the near term catalysts cloud your vision and make every attempt to look beyond the debt limit crisis.

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