The Latest Odds Of A Trump Impeachment

If you think the latest round of political scandal in Washington will ultimately result in the impeachment of President Donald Trump, don’t bet on it.

According to the newest numbers from bookies and online prediction sites, Trump’s odds of impeachment have jumped following the trial of former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort and former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen's plea deal — but oddsmakers say it's still more likely than not that Trump completes his first term in office.

What Are The Odds?

While Las Vegas doesn’t allow betting on any events other than sports, U.K. bookies are happy to take bets on Trump’s longevity in office.

Paddy Power currently has the odds Trump will not complete his first term in office at 6-4, suggesting there’s a 40-percent chance he will not stay in office through 2020.

Online prediction website PredictIt suggests the odds that Trump will be impeached in his first term are 43 percent, up from 37 percent as of the end of May. PredictIt data suggests there is just a 7-percent chance Trump will be impeached by the end of 2018.

While it’s telling that the odds of impeachment have risen in recent weeks, gamblers aren’t necessarily reliable when it comes to politics. Some of the same U.K. bookies had Hillary Clinton as the heavy favorite to win the election back in 2016.

Trump Warns Investors

Trump himself has warned investors of the implications of a potential impeachment.

“I’ll tell you what, if I ever got impeached, I think the market would crash,” Trump recently said in in interview with Fox News. “I think everybody would be very poor, because without this thinking, you would see numbers that you wouldn’t believe, in reverse.”

For the most part, investors have ignored the drama in Washington. Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, recently said investors are correct not to care.

“This isn’t 1974, when President Nixon resigned under threat of impeachment,” Colas said. “Back then, oil prices had just risen 4x and the global system of fixed exchange rates was imploding. Now, rates are low, the dollar is strong and corporate earnings remain robust. Those are the only things stock prices can (and should) actually discount,” Colas said.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY is up 2 percent in the past month.

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White House photo by Shealah Craighead.