3 Investor Takeaways From The First Presidential Debate Of 2020

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY traded higher by 1.5% on Wednesday following the first U.S. presidential debate on Tuesday night. LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick said that despite a chaotic debate, there was little substantive market-moving news from the two candidates.

“Despite the chaos, viewers probably came out of the debate with largely the same impression of the candidates they came in with,” Detrick said.

Key Questions: Prior to the debate, LPL outlined three key questions that could have a significant impact on the market.

See Also: Trump-Biden First Presidential Debate: Key Takeaways

The first question was will investors learn anything new about former Vice President Joe Biden or President Donald Trump’s policy proposals? Detrick said both candidates attacked each others’ policies on Tuesday, but neither one revealed any major new proposals or details about their platforms.

The second key question was will the election odds shift following the debate? European sportsbook Betfair reported a 7.3% boost in Biden’s odds of winning the election following last night’s debate and now has Biden’s chances of victory at 61.7%. However, Detrick said the true election odds are likely much closer than polls indicate, and history suggests Trump’s election performance may exceed expectations based on the 2016 campaign.

Finally, the third key question for investors following last night’s debate was will the candidates raise or alleviate concerns over a potential chaotic election outcome? Detrick said Trump’s refusal to commit to accepting the outcome of the election may have raised the possibility of a chaotic outcome. However, he believes Trump’s rhetoric may be more of a pre-election strategy rather than a sign of his post-election intentions.

Benzinga’s Take: At the end of the day, the debate did little to ease investor concerns over the possibility of a messy election. However, investors have been anticipating a chaotic election for a while, so a certain amount of election uncertainty may already be priced into the market at this point.