Democrats Can't Retain Senate If Trump Wins, Predicts Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel: 'That Has Enormous Implications'

Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel on Monday weighed in on the implications of a potential victory for former President Donald Trump in the Nov. 5 election.

What Happened: If Trump wins, “there is no way the Democrats can hold the Senate even if they win every single…swing Democratic vote,” said Siegel, who also serves as Senior Economist to WisdomTree.

“It would be 50: 50,” he said.

Currently, the House is controlled by the Republicans by a laser-thin margin of 222:213, while Democrats have a slight majority in the Senate. There are 34 senate seats up for grabs in 2024, including a special election in Nebraska. Out of these, 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. Republicans could retake control with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election along with a net gain of one seat.

If the GOP potentially retakes the Senate, “that has enormous implications,” Siegel said.

“Who gets appointed and administratively in many of the regulatory agencies of course the judiciary Is extremely important.”

The economist also flagged the possibility of the two most elderly Supreme Court justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas deciding to retire and being replaced with younger conservatives by Trump.

This, however, wouldn’t change the six-to-three balance in favor of the conservatives but would cement the majority for longer, he added.

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Why It’s Important: Siegel’s views come amid widespread fears that Trump’s rumored tariff plans will lead to a further spike in inflation. In his weekly commentary published on WisdomTree’s website, Siegel said the equity market favored Trump, while his re-election could weigh down on the bond market due to the prospect of higher tariffs and/or faster economic growth.

Siegel said more than geopolitical events, earnings, inflation and economic growth will likely move the financial markets over the next four months.

Goldman Sachs analysts agreed with Siegel’s view about the influence of a Trump second term on the market. They see a significant rise in the S&P 500 Index, which currently trades just shy of its record high. Extrapolating the likely policy framework from his first term, the analysts foresee the former president pursuing a “de-regulation” agenda. That said, they see rollbacks on energy and environmental policies and financial regulations, which President Joe Biden’s administration passionately pursued.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, an exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 Index, rose 0.13% to $562.25, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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