Estée Lauder Delivers Mixed Q4 Results, Analysts Note Transition Year Ahead

Zinger Key Points
  • Estée Lauder’s robust growth in EMEA is offset by weakness across the Americas and Asia.
  • The company issues FY25 guidance below expectations, with contraction in China.

Estée Lauder Companies Inc EL shares tanked in early trading on Tuesday, after the company reported results for its fiscal fourth quarter.

The results came amid an exciting earnings season. Here are some key analyst takeaways.

Goldman Sachs On Estée Lauder Companies

Analyst Bonnie Herzog maintained a Neutral rating while cutting the price target from $115 to $100.

Estée Lauder reported quarterly results that were "generally fine, with organic growth of +8%, slightly ahead of expectations as EMEA's robust growth (driven by its global travel retail business) was partly offset by weakness across Americas (on slower end-market demand and declines in dept stores) and in APAC (led by China softness)," Herzog said in a note.

"Importantly, prestige beauty industry sales trends in Mainland China further weakened," with consumer confidence remaining subdued, the analyst stated. He added, however, that management noted share gains in mainland China, driven by La Mer and Estée Lauder skincare offerings.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

Stifel On Estée Lauder Companies

Analyst Mark Astrachan reaffirmed a Buy rating while reducing the price target from $165 to $125.

Estée Lauder's first guidance for fiscal 2025 has come in below expectations, Astrachan said. The stock is likely to remain range-bound till there are signs of improving sales trends, which is expected in the second quarter of fiscal 2025, and the announcement of a new CEO, he added.

"We view F2025 as a transition year, with guidance implying accelerating sales growth from F2Q25-F4Q25 and following weakening F4Q24 trends in Mainland China and related travel retail that is expected to continue in F2025," the analyst wrote. Profitability is likely to improve through fiscal 2026, driven by sales leverage and previously announced productivity initiatives, he further stated.

RBC Capital Markets On Estée Lauder Companies

Analyst Nik Modi maintained an Outperform rating and price target of $131.

"EL reported a mixed quarter with a solid P&L beat but issued fiscal 2025 guidance that was below expectations and seems very achievable to us," Modi said. The company's gross margins came in around 30 basis points (bps) higher than expected, driven mainly by skincare "but also benefiting from lower excess and obsolete inventory," he added.

Topline guidance of a double-digit contraction in China implies mid-single-digit growth in other regions, while the EBIT guidance assumes a buffer for deleverage of around $350 million, the analyst stated.

Estée Lauder also announced that CEO Fabrizio Freda plans to retire by yearend fiscal 2025 and that "succession planning has been underway as both internal and external candidates are being considered," he further wrote.

EL Price Action: Shares of Estée Lauder Companies had declined by 4.95% to $88.24 at the time of publication on Tuesday.

Photo: Estée Lauder

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