Assessing The Odds Of An ACA Repeal And Replace Vote This Week

Height Securities likes to offer betting odds on major political events, from federal government shutdowns to impending tax reforms. Over the last few months, the firm has closely followed and posited probabilities for efforts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act.

Now, as a new American Health Care Act vote appears imminent, the firm is posting last-minute odds highly sensitive to situational nuances.

Has Anything Really Changed?

Last week, analysts predicted recent amendments to the reform bill would not secure enough votes to pass. They expressed greater confidence Monday in a pre-weekend approval before appearing shaken in a Tuesday note.

The most recent brief suggested a positive House of Representatives vote is likely this week — provided an edited bill is put forth.

“We continue to believe that leadership can get to 216 votes by adding one or two more provisions intended to protect the more vulnerable members of society (older, sicker individuals) who could lose their health coverage due to conservatives’ latest amendment,” analysts wrote. “We think these changes could come over the next few days, paving the way for the House to vote on AHCA by the end of this week.”

The sentiment is backed by White House optimism — but not much more. Height acknowledged House leadership is skeptical of calling a vote without having garnered enough support to pass, and as of yet, moderate Republicans hesitate to back the current model citing concern it would burden sicker and older constituents.

President Donald Trump has attempted to abate their fears by stating the current proposal is not the final bill, which will better protect at-risk populations, but House leadership confirmed the version is final.

“In our view, if Republicans cannot come to agreement around what those one or two more provisions should be within the next 48 hours, then resolution by the end of this week becomes far less likely,” Height analysts wrote.

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