477 Days And Counting: How The Current Post-Pandemic Bull Market Compares To Bull Markets Of The Past

The S&P 500 made new all-time highs on Monday, and the bull market that started on March 23, 2020 has had very few bumps in the road up to this point. The bull market is now 477 days old, and the S&P 500 has rallied just over 100% since hitting its intraday pandemic low of 2,191.86 last March.

It may seem like an eternity since that pandemic low in 2020, but as Ritholtz portfolio manager Ben Carlson highlighted, history suggests the bull market may be just getting started.

Related Link: 3 Reasons To Stay Bullish On Stocks In The Second Half Of 2021

Bull Market Numbers: A bull market is defined as a gain of at least 20% from a bear market trough. There have been 23 S&P 500 bull markets since 1928. The average bull market has lasted 1,121 days, or just over three years. However, the past five bull markets have lasted at least 1,826 days.

The bull market from March 2009 to February 2020 that ended when the pandemic hit lasted 3,999 days. The bull market from December 1987 to the bursting of the dot-com bubble in March 2000 lasted 4,494 days, or about 12.3 years.

By duration, the current bull market is relatively young compared to most bull markets of the past. But it has certainly come a long way fast. In fact, in just 477 days, the current bull market’s 100% return off of trough lows is just 22% shy of the average bull market return since 1928.

And just because a bear market was less than two years ago doesn’t mean investors are in the clear of a major market correction (a decline of at least 10% from the bull market peak) or another bear market (a decline of at least 20%). There have been 32 corrections and 21 bear markets since 1928, or roughly one every 21 months.

Benzinga’s Take: These historical numbers are a great way for investors to keep some perspective on where the S&P 500 is and where it might be going. But past performance is certainly not a reliable predictor of future results, and nobody should be going long or short the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY based on historical bull market trends.