Trump's Lead Over Republican Competition Grows With 45 Point Lead: Is GOP Nomination Locked Up?

Former President Donald Trump has dominated election polls for months as he works to secure the GOP nomination for the 2024 presidential election.

A recent poll showed Trump’s continued dominance over multiple competitors.

What Happened: Trump chose to sit out the first Republican primary debate with his competition, but it didn’t appear to have impacted his odds to win the GOP nomination for the 2024 presidential election.

A series of indictments and federal charges against the president along with his return to X to share his mug shot, had done little to lower the support for Trump.

The latest Morning Consult poll of GOP voters showed Trump gained support from voters and widened his lead.

In the latest poll, Trump had a 45-point lead, which came in as one of the highest since tracking began in December. The latest poll had Trump gaining from a 44-point lead he enjoyed for two straight weeks.

Here’s a look at who Republican voters would vote for today, with the previous percentage from last week in parentheses.

• Donald Trump: 60% (58%)
• Ron DeSantis: 15% (14%)
• Vivek Ramaswamy: 8% (10%)
• Mike Pence: 6% (6%)
• Nikki Haley: 5% (5%)
• Chris Christie: 3% (3%)
• Tim Scott: 2% (2%)

Related Link: Christie To Trump: I'm Staying, You Go 

Why It’s Important: The latest national poll showed Trump with a commanding lead despite skipping the debate and multiple indictments working against him.

One notable takeaway from the latest poll was the sudden fall of Ramaswamy. The biotech entrepreneur was moving up in the poll for several weeks hitting double-digit support of 10% in recent weeks. A Morning Consult poll had Ramaswamy declared the winner of the first Republican debate.

DeSantis gained one point from the previous week, which came as he showed support gained after hitting new lows in recent weeks.

Haley maintained 5% of support, which tied her total from last week after gaining two points in the post-debate poll.

The latest Morning Consult poll showed six candidates with 3% or more in support, which will be a key figure to watch. Candidates need to have 3% support among GOP voters in two national surveys ahead of the next Republican primary debate.

A second Republican primary debate will be held on Sept. 27 and air on Fox Corporation FOXFOXA unit Fox Business and will livestream on Rumble Inc RUM.

Scott saw his support in the Morning Consult poll hit 2% for two straight weeks after previously getting around 3% on a weekly basis. Scott was ranked as one of the worst performers in the debate.

Among voters who selected Trump first, 36% chose DeSantis as their next selection, while Ramaswamy was selected by 21% and Pence by 11%. This marked a shift as last week’s poll saw 32% select DeSantis and 26% select Ramaswamy.

Of voters who supported DeSantis, 34% selected Trump as their next selection, 21% selected Haley, 19% selected Ramaswamy and 14% selected Pence. Last week, 37% selected Trump, 17% selected Ramaswamy, 16% selected Haley and 13% selected Pence.

Ramaswamy dropped behind Haley in this week’s poll, losing overall support for the nomination and secondary support.

Trump ranked first in the favorability scoring in the poll with 76%, matching his total from the previous two weeks. DeSantis gained one point to rank with a favorability of 64%.

After dropping in favorability last week, Ramaswamy saw his figure go from 53% last week to 59% in the latest poll. Ramaswamy’s unfavorable rating of 17% ranks as one of the lowest and his net favorable rating of 42 points is also among the highest.

Ramaswamy also led the way again for candidates who voters heard something positive about at 40%, dropping from 43% in the previous week.

A recent report from FiveThirtyEight explored Trump’s dominant rating in the polls at this stage of the election. Data compiled showed only four non-incumbents other than Trump to rank at 50% or better at the end of August in the year before the presidential election.

Of those four, three won their party’s nomination and one lost.

Based on the results of the data, the report listed Trump’s odds to win the GOP nomination at anywhere from 54% to 93% with the total being closer to 66% odds to win the party’s nomination.

While there could be some early state upsets in the primary elections in 2024, right now it seems Trump’s nomination to lose.

Read Next: 2024 Election Betting Odds: Biden Gains, DeSantis Drops, Ramaswamy Climbs 

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