The 2024 presidential election is less than a year away and could have voters faced with a rematch of the 2020 presidential election, which saw voters select between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. The 2020 election was won by Biden.
A weekly election poll showed a potential matchup between the past two presidents and the results might be surprising after recent events.
What Happened: President Biden is the favorite to win the Democratic Party nomination in the 2024 election, an item that may have been helped by presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announcing he would run as an Independent.
If Biden wins the Democratic nomination, he will likely face off against Trump in the general presidential election. Trump has been dominant over Republican candidates and in a recent poll had a 53-point lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, his largest lead since polling began in December.
The weekly Morning Consult poll asked registered voters who they would select in a hypothetical matchup of Trump vs. Biden.
In this week's poll, Biden received 41% of the vote, trailing Trump at 44% of the vote. The remaining voters selected Someone Else (10%) and Don't Know (5%).
This marked a decline for Biden and another gain for Trump, with the results from the previous poll being 42% for Biden and 43% for Trump.
By party, 83% of Democrats selected Biden and 87% of Republicans selected Trump for the hypothetical 2024 poll.
The important Independent voters, who could decide the election selected their 2024 pick as the following, with last week's results in parentheses:
Biden: 31% (31%)
Trump: 37% (38%)
Someone Else: 22% (21%)
Don't Know: 10% (10%)
The poll also found that 89% of voters who also voted for Trump in the 2020 election are backing him again, compared to 82% of Biden 2020 voters who are also backing him again.
This marked a third straight week for Trump having a lead.
Related Link: 2024 Presidential Election Betting: Trump The Favorite, Biden Remains Second
Why It's Important: Over the past nine weeks, Biden has been tied with Trump four times, ahead of the former president twice and ranked behind the former president three times.
This marked a big change from past months that saw Biden have a lead of one to two percentage points in most weeks since polling began in December.
Biden had one of his biggest leads eleven weeks ago with a three-point lead over Trump. Now it is Trump who holds a three-point lead, marking one of his biggest leads in the weekly national poll.
The results of the poll come after Trump's civil fraud trial in the state of New York saw the former president on the witness stand and several of his children testifying.
Trump also skipped a third Republican primary debate, which saw five of his competitors on stage.
Biden, who recently celebrated his birthday, saw his approval ratings hit record lows since taking office. Concerns over polling in swing states has also been a major concern for Biden's campaign.
Here’s a look at the most recent swing state polling from Morning Consult:
Arizona: 42% Biden, 46% Trump
Georgia: 41% Biden, 48% Trump
Michigan: 43% Biden, 43% Trump
Nevada: 43% Biden, 46% Trump
North Carolina: 39% Biden, 48% Trump
Pennsylvania: 44% Biden, 47% Trump
Wisconsin: 46% Biden, 47% Trump
A Morning Consult poll found Biden to have a favorable rating of 43% and an unfavorable rating of 52%. Trump had a 45% favorable rating and 51% unfavorable rating.
The 2024 presidential election takes place on Nov. 5.
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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