The 2024 presidential election will most likely see voters selecting between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, with both candidates leading their respective parties with less than one year to go. The potential match-up would mark a rematch of the 2020 presidential election, which was won by Biden.
National polls of registered voters continue to show a close race for the 2024 election. Here’s the latest.
What Happened: President Biden and former President Trump have been the frontrunners for their respective parties ahead of the 2024 election for many months.
The most recent Republican voter poll from Morning Consult showed Trump with a 55-point lead and 66% of support. This marks the largest lead Trump has had since polling began in December.
While Trump has held a lead of 50 points over his Republican opposition in several consecutive weeks, the former president has been neck and neck in a hypothetical national matchup against Biden.
The weekly Morning Consult poll asked registered voters who they would select in a hypothetical matchup of Trump versus Biden.
In this week's poll, Trump received 44% of the vote and Biden received 42% of the vote. Ten percent of voters selected Someone Else and 5% selected Don't Know.
This marked a gain for Trump, who had 43% in last week's poll. Biden held steady at 42% of the vote. Two weeks ago, the two candidates were tied at 43% support each.
The important Independent voters, who could decide the election, selected their 2024 pick as the following, with last week's results in parentheses:
Joe Biden: 30% (33%)
Donald Trump: 40% (37%)
Someone Else: 21% (21%)
Don't Know: 9% (9%)
Trump gained three percentage points and Biden lost three percentage points among the Independent voters from last week's poll.
The poll found 87% of Republicans selected Trump for the hypothetical 2024 poll, in line with last week's results. The poll also found that 89% of voters who voted for Trump in the 2020 election are backing him again, which was up one percentage point from last week's results.
In the latest poll, 83% of Democratic voters selected Biden, up from 82% in the previous poll. The poll also found that 82% of voters who backed Biden in the 2020 election are backing him again in the poll, which is up from 81% in the previous poll.
Related Link: Biden Says ‘No Question’ Trump Supported Insurrection After Colorado Ballot Ruling: ‘He Seems To Be Doubling Down On It’
Why It’s Important: The latest poll marks two straight weeks of Trump leading Biden and a fifth time leading over the past six weeks.
Over the past 13 weeks, Biden was tied with Trump five times, ahead of the former president three times and ranked behind the former president five times.
Before the past three months, Biden posted a lead of one to two percentage points in almost all polls dating back to when polling began in December.
A separate Morning Consult poll found Trump leading Biden among registered voters in the seven swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Biden won six of the seven swing states in the 2020 presidential election, with five of the seven flipping from Democrat to Republican to help secure the win for Biden.
While these items are concerns for Biden, the bigger concern could be what was listed as the top issue for voters ahead of the 2024 election in the Morning Consult poll.
The top issues for voters were:
Economy: 73%
National Security: 66%
Health Care: 65%
Jobs: 63%
Social Security/Medicare: 63%
The economy being a major concern could be worrisome to Biden's campaign and the Democrats with the economy and consumers feeling the effects of higher inflation leading to higher prices for goods and services. Some have blamed Biden for not doing enough to help consumers who are struggling with higher prices and living expenses.
Biden recently highlighted the all-time highs for the stock market in a campaign video, which drew the attention of voters and Trump. While stock market indexes are at all-time highs, it comes with high inflation and after 2022 that saw a large market drop.
The S&P 500 gained 37.4% during Biden's first year in office, which was the best one-year market return under a president since Harry Truman in 1945.
In 2022, the S&P 500 experienced a decline of over 19%, representing the largest annual drop since 2008.
Responding to Biden's video, Trump said "Biden's inflation catastrophe is demolishing your savings and ravaging your dreams."
"The stock market is making rich people richer," Trump said.
Benzinga recently shared that the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, which tracks the S&P 500 Index, is up 23.7% since Biden assumed the presidency. The return over the last nearly two years would represent an average yearly gain of around 11.9%.
During Trump's four years as president, the S&P 500 had average annual gains of 14.5%. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust was up a total of around 67% during the four-year span under Trump, making it one of the best four-year returns for the S&P 500 in recent history.
Although Biden can point to higher stock market prices and record peaks during his tenure, the stock market's overall performance and annual average returns under Trump still surpassed those during Biden's time in office.
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the economy and stock market returns are likely to become key topics of discussion. If the economy remains the key issue for voters for the 2024 election, the past results may tip the scales in Trump's favor.
Photos via Shutterstock.
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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