Biden Too Old, Trump Too Dangerous: New Swing State Poll Highlights Key Issues, Shows Former President With Lead

Zinger Key Points
  • Seven states could prove to be among the most important battles in the 2024 presidential election.
  • Trump maintains a lead in all seven swing states.

Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election to become the 46th president of the U.S.

One of the keys to victory was Biden winning the so-called swing states, which are states generally won by 3% or less by a party in the previous election and can be considered toss-ups going forward.

A new poll shows one candidate dominating in the seven 2024 presidential election swing states.

What Happened: A new Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll shows the results of voters in the seven swing states for who they would select in the 2024 presidential election.

The poll also asked voters what their top issues are for the 2024 presidential election and their thoughts about Biden and Trump being too old for president and which candidate is considered more dangerous.

Here's a look at how the voters in each state would vote between Biden and Trump if the election were held today, with results from the January poll in parentheses.

Arizona: Trump 48% (47%), Biden 43% (44%)

Georgia: Trump 49% (49%), Biden 43% (41%)

Michigan: Trump 46% (47%), Biden 44% (42%)

Nevada: Trump 48% (48%), Biden 42% (40%)

North Carolina: Trump 50% (49%), Biden 41% (39%)

Pennsylvania: Trump 49% (48%), Biden 43% (45%)

Wisconsin: Trump 46% (49%), Biden 42% (44%)

Overall, Trump had a lead of 48% to 43% across the seven swing states for a five-point lead.

Trump gained support in three of the seven states, kept the same support in two states and lost support in two states. Biden gained support in four of the seven states and lost support in three of the states.

The lead by Trump in all seven states was wider than the current 43% to 42% margin of all U.S. voters in a recent Morning Consult poll.

Related Link: Trump In Trouble? Former President’s Lead Over Biden Shrinks In New 2024 Election Poll


Why It's Important: Biden gaining support in the latest poll from four key swing states could be a positive for the president. The bad news is what voters picked as the biggest issue and their thoughts on his age.

Voters were asked if they thought Biden, Trump or both candidates were too old to be president. The results were:

Biden: 44%

Trump: 8%

Both: 38%

Neither: 9%

This meant that of those polled in the key swing states, 82% think Biden is too old, while around 46% think Trump is too old.

Voters also selected Trump as the more mentally fit candidate getting 43% of the vote compared to Biden at 26%. Both received 4% and Neither was selected by 30% of voters.

Biden did win the poll for the most honest of the two candidates getting 35% of the vote, compared to 31% for Trump, 32% for Neither and 2% for Both.

"Biden's age is clearly a sticky narrative that the president's campaign is going to have to contend with," Morning Consult Vice President Caroline Bye said.

The poll also asked voters who they thought was best described as "dangerous," with the following results.

Biden: 34%

Trump: 45%

Both: 14%

Neither: 7%

This meant 59% of voters thought Trump could be described as dangerous, while 48% felt that way about Biden.

The top issue for the seven swing states was the economy, which got 35% of the vote from voters in all the states and was the top overall issue in each state. The economy was less important now than in October's poll when it got 39% of the vote.

The economy continued to be a large issue, as many voters thought Biden might not have done enough to combat high inflation and consumer spending, but this also happened with stock market indexes at all-time highs.

Immigration ranked second at 16% of the vote, up from 9% in October's poll.

The S&P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, gained 37.4% during Biden's first year in office, which was the best one-year market return under a president since Harry Truman in 1945.

Since Biden was inaugurated on Jan. 20, 2021, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust was up 34.4%. During Trump's four years as president, the S&P 500 had average annual gains of 14.5% and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust was up a total of around 67%, marking one of the best four-year returns in recent history.

Read Next: Why Buy Stocks In A Presidential Election Year? History Has A Crazy Stat For You

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