Seven swing states could play a key role in deciding if President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 presidential election.
New election polls of several of the swing states show close contests.
Arizona Election Poll: Registered users in the key swing state of Arizona show Trump with a small advantage.
Here are the results of an Emerson College March poll, with results from February in parentheses.
Donald Trump: 48% (46%)
Joe Biden: 44% (43%)
Someone Else/Undecided: 8% (12%)
Among Independent voters, Trump had a 45% to 41% advantage among voters. Of the undecided voters, 53% lean to Trump and 47% lean to Biden.
"Trump voters support the former president because they care about an issue, 33%, or like Trump, 30%, whereas 43% of Biden voters support him because they dislike Trump, the highest sentiment among Biden voters in the swing states polled this month," Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball said.
A majority of Arizona voters (58%) don't think Biden deserves to be re-elected. Voters asked if Trump deserves another chance to be president after the events of Jan. 6, 2021, and 51% said yes in a slight majority.
A concern for both Trump and Biden could be third-party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. When presented with more options on a potential ballot, Arizona voters were split 41% for Trump, 36% for Biden and 9% for Kennedy Jr.
Nevada Election Poll: Registered users in the key swing state of Nevada show Trump with a small advantage.
Here are the results of an Emerson College March poll, with results from February in parentheses.
Donald Trump: 44% (46%)
Joe Biden: 41% (40%)
Someone Else/Undecided: 15% (14%)
In Nevada, undecided voters lean slightly toward Trump with a 51% to 49% advantage.
A key advantage for Biden in Nevada was the result of Hispanic voters with a 44% to 39% advantage among this demographic for the current president.
A large majority (61%) said Biden does not deserve to be re-elected. A majority (53%) also said Trump does not deserve to be re-elected.
Michigan Election Poll: Registered users in the key swing state of Michigan show Trump with a small advantage.
Here are the results of an Emerson College March poll, with results from February in parentheses.
Donald Trump: 45% (46%)
Joe Biden: 44% (44%)
Someone Else/Undecided: 15% (14%)
Independent voters polled gave a larger advantage to Trump with 40% of the vote, compared to 35% for Biden. A large portion of Independent voters are still undecided at 26% of the poll. Of the undecided voters, 51% lean to Trump and 49% lean to Biden.
Trump's lead grew to 43% to 41% over Biden when voters were given options of third-party candidates where Kennedy Jr. got 5% of the vote.
One interesting note from the poll was voters were given a hypothetical matchup of Trump against Democratic Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. In that head-to-head matchup, Whitmer got 50% of the vote, compared to 45% for Trump and 6% undecided.
Wisconsin Election Poll: Registered users in the key swing state of Wisconsin show Trump with a small advantage.
Here are the results of an Emerson College March poll, with results from February in parentheses.
Donald Trump: 45% (46%)
Joe Biden: 44% (44%)
Someone Else/Undecided: 15% (14%)
One key advantage for Biden in Wisconsin is Independent voters with this demographic giving the president a 42% to 37% advantage. Undecided voters also lean toward Biden 51% to 49% for Trump.
When given the option of third-party candidate, 43% vote for Trump, 40% for Biden and 6% support Kennedy Jr.
Why It's Important: While Trump leads in all four key swing states, the former president saw his support drop from the previous month in three of the four states. Biden gained support in two states and kept the same level of support in two of the states.
Independent and undecided voters continue to play a large role in the election and could swing the results.
State polls show that when Kennedy Jr. is listed as an option, Biden's support level went down, which could also play a key role in the election.
The seven swing states together represent 93 electoral votes in the 2024 election. Six of the seven swing states were won by Biden in the 2020 election, with Trump winning North Carolina. Five of the seven swing states won by Biden in 2020 flipped from Trump to Biden in the election, including Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin.
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