Trump Vs. Biden: One Candidate Gains In 2024 Election Poll Of Swing State Voters; Who Is Hurt The Most By Kennedy Jr.?

For the first time since 1892, two candidates who have served as the U.S. president will likely be facing off as the top candidates in the 2024 presidential election.

The race between Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden is less than six months away and expected to be close.

What Happened: Election polls and betting odds point to a close matchup between Biden and Trump, which could leave the presidency to be determined by items such as voter turnout, young voters and swing state voters.

A new poll of voters in swing states shows Biden gaining ground over Trump, who has led in these key states in recent months.

Here are the results of the recent swing state poll from Morning Consult/Bloomberg for the month of May, with the results from April in parentheses.

Arizona: 49% Trump (49%), 44% Biden (42%)

Georgia: 47% Trump (49%), 44% Biden (43%)

Michigan: 46% Biden (47%), 45% Trump (45%)

Nevada: 47% Biden (43%), 47% Trump (51%)

North Carolina: 49% Trump (51%), 42% Biden (41%)

Pennsylvania: 48% Trump (47%), 46% Biden (46%)

Wisconsin: 47% Trump (48%), 46% Biden (44%)

Here are the results of the poll when independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was included.

Arizona: 45% Trump, 40% Biden, 7% Kennedy Jr.

Georgia: 44% Trump, 39% Biden, 8% Kennedy Jr.

Michigan: 42% Biden, 40% Trump, 7% Kennedy Jr.

Nevada: 44% Trump, 39% Biden, 7% Kennedy Jr.

North Carolina: 46% Trump, 38% Biden, 7% Kennedy Jr.

Pennsylvania: 45% Trump, 42% Biden, 7% Kennedy Jr.

Wisconsin: 43% Trump, 42% Biden, 6% Kennedy Jr.

Related Link: Biden’s Approval Rating Hits 22-Month Low, Here’s How Many Americans Support President’s Job Performance

Why It's Important: The new poll shows Trump gaining support in Pennsylvania and keeping the same support in Arizona and Michigan. Trump lost support in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin in the new poll.

Biden gained support in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin. Biden kept the same support in Pennysylvania and lost support in Michigan.

While Trump leads in five of the seven swing states, Biden holds a lead in one and is tied in another. The previous month saw Trump leading in six of the seven swing states. Biden showed the biggest improvement across the swing states.

When Kennedy Jr. is included in the voting, Trump leads six of the seven states. The inclusion of Kennedy Jr. hurts Biden in four states and helps him in only one (Michigan). This could be something to watch as political experts try to determine which candidate could be hurt the most by Kennedy Jr. running.

The new poll found that around 50% of voters are worried about violence around the 2024 presidential election. Voters also expressed concerns about misinformation and foreign interference in the election.

The economy continues to be a key issue for voters in the swing states.

Trump's current hush money criminal trial was also mentioned by a growing number of voters in an open-ended question about the news they had heard about a candidate, which could suggest the trial is becoming more closely watched in recent weeks.

These seven swing states together represent 93 electoral votes in the 2024 election. Six of the seven swing states were won by Biden in the 2020 election, with Trump winning North Carolina. Five of the seven swing states won by Biden in 2020 flipped from Trump to Biden in the election, including Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin.

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