Americans Finally Start To Feel Better About The Economy: What It Means For Trump, Biden Presidential Election

Despite the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY sitting near all-time highs, and a relatively low unemployment rate, many Americans have not felt too confident about the economy. But, there are signs that sentiment is starting to shift.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for May rose to 102, up from 97.5 in April. This bucked a trend of consumer confidence declining in the previous three months.

Other data, like the University of Michigan's consumer survey, indicated inflation was still a chief concern for many Americans as the country inches toward the presidential election later this year. April's inflation data (Consumer Price Index) showed lower-than-expected, month-over-month growth, but year-over-year growth was still more than 3%, higher than what most consumers are comfortable with.

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Housing prices have remained relatively elevated with mortgage rates retreating from their highs, which bolstered demand. Higher interest rates also made it more expensive to build new houses, limiting the supply of available new homes on the market.

What Does It Mean For The Presidential Election?

In the swing states for the 2024 presidential election, most voters said the economy and inflation were top issues for them heading into the November election, according to a CBS News and YouGov poll. Consumer sentiment trending higher is good news for President Joe Biden, but if inflation remains sticky, voters could overlook the low unemployment rate and focus on higher prices, which may help Donald Trump in what is expected to be a 2020 rematch.

PredictIt.org, a site that allows users to predict and bet on political outcomes, currently had Trump listed as the favorite at $.52 on the dollar. Biden trails at $.43 on the dollar. The site showed Biden as a favorite in late April, but the odds for the candidates have since flipped. 

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