Leading pollster Nate Silver founded FiveThirtyEight, which has been used to predict the outcomes of several presidential elections.
While he no longer works for the company, which is owned by Walt Disney Co DIS, Silver recently shared several takes on the 2024 election.
What Happened: With Joe Biden and Donald Trump the two leading candidates in the 2024 presidential election, many voters would like to see new candidates emerge who are younger or haven't already served as president.
While it seems unlikely at this point that the 2024 presidential election won't be a rematch between Trump and Biden, Silver is calling for a major change.
Using data from his former home at 538, Silver tweeted that Biden hit a new all-time low in approval rating at 37.4%.
"Dropping out would be a big risk. But there's some threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk," Silver said.
Silver said he's not sure if we have reached that threshold but it's fair to ask the question.
"What's clearer IMO is that Democrats would have been better served if Biden had decided a year ago not to seek a second term, which would have allowed them to have some semblance of a primary process and give voters a say among the many popular Democrats across the country."
Silver called out the age of Biden at 81 years old and also the high inflation during Biden's current presidency in several posts on X.
"If I'd told you 10 years ago a president would seek re-election at 81 despite a supermajority of Americans having concerns about his age, and then we'd hit 8% inflation for 2 years, you wouldn't be surprised he was an underdog for reelection. You'd be surprised it was even close!"
Silver also pointed to election polls for swing states showing Biden in worse shape at this point in the election than he was in the 2020 election.
Related Link: Trump Vs. Biden: Guilty Verdict Spells Trouble For Former President In 2024 Election Poll, 40% Support Prison Sentence
Why It's Important: Silver doesn't stop with just saying Biden should drop out of the race, with some X users attacking his posts as one-sided.
"Trump should drop out too! is such a weird dunk on people who are pointing out that Biden has big challenges. Yes, Trump should drop out! I agree! Biden would lose by 7 points, but I agree, the Republican party and the country would be better served by a different nominee," Silver said.
Neither Trump or Biden have shown any signs of potentially dropping out of the 2024 election.
Benzinga previously reported on a survey that showed Democratic voters looking at candidates like Michelle Obama, Kamala Harris, Hillary Clinton and Gavin Newsom as potential replacements for Biden in the election.
Biden recently clapped back at a reporter who questioned how his age could factor into a second presidential term if he wins the 2024 presidential election.
A reporter recently asked Biden if, should he win a second term, he would finish or hand over the presidency to Vice President Kamala Harris before January 2029.
"Are you OK?" Biden responded. "Are you all right? You're not hurt, are you?"
Biden questioned if the reporter fell on their head or something drawing laughter from his team.
Harris has also been asked about the potential of taking over the presidency should anything happen to Biden.
Harris said in September 2023 that part of the job as vice president is being ready to take over as president if anything happens.
“Well, first of all, let’s — I’m answering your hypothetical, but Joe Biden is going to be fine. So, that is not going to come to fruition,” Harris said at the time.
Of the 45 U.S. presidents, eight have died while in office, representing around 18%. Four died from natural causes and four were assassinated.
Biden, the oldest serving president, is set to turn 82 in November. Previous President Donald Trump, his Republican opponent, is 77. Trump was also the second-oldest president when he left office in 2021 — trailing only President Ronald Reagan.
If Biden is re-elected, he will be 86 when he leaves office at the end of his second presidential term.
A president has not died in office since President John F. Kennedy in 1963. With the age of Biden and Trump in focus, voters see the potential choice of a vice president as a bigger priority.
This could make Trump's vice president decision a major item once addressed.
Whether the upcoming presidential debates change perceptions about how both candidates speak publicly without following prepared remarks remains to be seen.
Photo: Shutterstock
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Comments
Trade confidently with insights and alerts from analyst ratings, free reports and breaking news that affects the stocks you care about.
