A close race is expected between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election.
Election polls of national registered voters show a close battle between the two in a rematch of the 2020 presidential election. A new poll shows there could be increasing trouble ahead for Biden.
What Happened: Trump and Biden have been the betting favorites to win the 2024 election for many months, with Trump often in the lead at sportsbooks and prediction markets.
While polls of voters across all states show Biden gaining against Trump and winning over Independent voters, a new election poll of key swing states paints a different picture.
A new Emerson College poll of seven swing states shows the following results, with the April poll results in parentheses:
Arizona: Trump 47%, Biden 43% (Trump 48%, Biden 44%)
Georgia: Trump 45%, Biden 41% (Trump 47%, Biden 44%)
Michigan: Trump 46%, Biden 45% (Trump 45%, Biden 44%)
Minnesota: Trump 45%, Biden 45% (not available)
Nevada: Trump 46%, Biden 43% (Trump 45%, Biden 44%)
Pennsylvania: Trump 47%, Biden 45% (Trump 47%, Biden 45%)
Wisconsin: Trump 47%, Biden 44% (Trump 47%, Biden 45%)
The new poll shows Trump leading in six of the seven states, with a tie in the newly crowned swing state of Minnesota. Trump gained support in two states and kept his same level of support in two states, while losing support in two states. Biden gained support one state and kept his same level of support in one state, while losing support in four states.
Trump held a stronger lead from the previous poll in three states and kept the same lead in three states.
"In our first polling in several key swing states since Trump's conviction last month, there has been little movement, with support for both Trump and Biden staying largely consistent since November," Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball said.
Related Link: Biden Vs. Trump: President Leads For First Time In 8 Months In New 2024 Election Poll Thanks To Women, Independent Voters
Why It's Important: Trump's guilty verdict on 34 counts of falsifying business records has led to changes in several recent election polls with more independent voters shifting to Biden. The latest Emerson College poll shows Trump leading in all seven states among Independent voters.
While Trump leads among Independent voters, he did lose support in the states of Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Biden saw his support among Independent voters fall in Georgia and Nevada in the latest poll.
The last Emerson College swing state poll included the states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The new poll replaces North Carolina with Minnesota.
Minnesota is considered a borderline swing state or battleground state by many election polls. Emerson College placing it in the poll could mark the rising importance of the state with 10 electoral college votes.
This could be bad news for Biden especially with the poll showing a tie with Trump in Minnesota. The state of Minnesota has voted a Democrat for president in each of the 12 past elections dating back to 1976.
Minnesota has also voted for a Democrat governor in the past four elections.
While Minnesota is considered a battleground state, it is one that has been marked as leaning towards or likely being won by Biden. The new poll could put that into jeopardy and put the odds of Biden securing the necessary 270 votes to win the 2024 election in question.
The seven swing states in the Emerson College poll together represent 87 electoral votes in the 2024 election. All seven of the states above were won by Biden in the 2020 election, with several of them flipped from Trump's win in 2016.
While the 2024 election is five months away, recent polls of voters in swing states have not shown favorable results for Biden, which could be worrisome for his campaign.
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