Trump Vs. Harris: Election Forecaster With 9 Out Of 10 Accurate Predictions Gives This Candidate The Edge In 2024 Race

Renowned election forecaster Allan Lichtman, known for his accurate presidential election predictions, has made his early forecast for the 2024 presidential election outcome.

What Happened: With President Joe Biden dropping out of the 2024 election, attention has turned to the head-to-head matchup between former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris.

Most election polls show a close race between the two candidates, with Harris gaining some support lost by Biden since the first 2024 presidential debate.

Using his “13 Keys to the White House,” Lichtman has made his early prediction on who will win the 2024 presidential election, as reported by the New York Post.

These are the 13 keys that make up the prediction:

• Party mandate
• Contest
• Incumbency
• Third party
• Short-term economy
• Long-term economy
• Policy change
• Social unrest
• Scandal
• Foreign/military failure
• Foreign/military success
• Incumbent charisma

Based on the 13 keys, which are turned into true and false questions, a candidate gains a key if they meet the criteria better than their opponent. Winning six or more keys predicts the candidate as the likely winner.

Lichtman currently favors Harris to win the 2024 presidential election. The Democratic Party holds six of the 13 keys according to Lichtman's latest prediction. The Republican Party holds three keys in the forecast, with two of them related to the current incumbent (Biden) not seeking re-election and lacking charisma.

Four of the keys have not been handed out to a winner, with a winner still needed in the third-party factor, no social unrest, foreign military failure and foreign military success.

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Why It's Important: A final prediction has not been made and will come after the Democratic National Convention in August, where an official nominee for the Democratic Party is named.

While there are four more keys to hand out, Lichtman told News Nation that "a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose" his 2024 election prediction.  

Lichtman established the 13 keys system in 1981 and has used it to make a prediction on each presidential election since 1984.

Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of nine of the last 10 presidential elections. This includes correctly predicting Trump winning in 2016 and Biden winning in 2020.

Lichtman's only miss was in 2000 when he predicted Al Gore would defeat George W. Bush. Gore won the popular vote in the election, but lost the electoral college.

The election predictor stated in 2016 that his book and paper referred to the popular vote, which would make his 2000 prediction correct, but the 2016 prediction of Donald Trump wrong as Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. Whether the prediction is for the popular vote winner or electoral college winner, the success rate of 90% stays the same over the last 10 elections.

The 2024 presidential election is less than four months away and barring a change to Lichtman's prediction after the DNC, Harris could be viewed as a favorite to win the election, at least based on the past success of the election predictor.

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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.