Harris Vs. Trump: Vice President Leads Former President By 14 Points In New York — But Should There Be Concern For Pivot To A Swing State?

A head-to-head battle between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris could come down to swing states deciding who wins the 2024 presidential election.

What Happened: Since President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential election, Harris has been gaining support for the Democratic Party against Trump in election polls.

A new Siena College election poll shows Harris with a sizeable lead over Trump in the state of New York. The poll shows Harris with 53% of support from voters with Trump getting 39% of support, as reported by Politico.

The 14-point lead comes after Biden had posted leads of eight to 10 points in recent months. While the support is still lower than 18-to-30 point leads than Democratic presidential candidates have had in election polls in recent years, it shows that Harris has taken back support in New York.

New York has been dominated by Democrats in recent presidential elections with the state voting for the Democratic candidate in each election since 1988, as reported by 270towin.

The 2020 election saw Biden get 60.9% of the vote in the state, while the 2016 election saw Hillary Clinton get 59.0% of the vote against Trump.

Harris was ranked favorably by 53% of New York voters in the poll, compared to 43% who ranked her unfavorably, for a net favorable rating of 10 points.

In June, Biden was viewed favorably by 42% of voters and unfavorably by 53% of voters.

Trump received a favorable rating of 39%, continuing a trend or rating between 37% and 39% for favorability in each Siena poll from January through July.

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Why It's Important: New York is one of the strongest blue states according to Politico and in recent months there had been concern that the closer-than-normal head-to-head polls in the state could make New York closer to a toss-up or potential swing state for the 2024 election.

Siena spokesperson Steve Greenberg said New York voters who were not sure if they were going to vote or were considering a third-party candidate have come back to support the Democratic candidate.

New York has 28 electoral votes in the 2024 election, which ranks fourth behind California (54), Texas (40) and Florida (30).

Losing the state of New York could be detrimental to a Democratic candidate winning the presidency given the past history and the large number of votes attached to it.

California is typically won by Democrats and Texas is typically won by Republicans. Florida has been mixed in recent years, but Trump's history with the state is expected to help him win the 30 electoral votes.

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