Trump In Trouble? Vice President Harris Leads 2024 Election Poll By 4 Points, Posts Record Highs For Democrats, Independents, Young Voters

A head-to-head matchup between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is showing a shift in voter sentiment with less than three months left before the 2024 presidential election.

What Happened: Harris has been gaining support in 2024 election polls in her head-to-head matchup with Trump.

The momentum surge comes prior to her selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. Walz was announced as her vice-presidential selection Tuesday morning.

A new Morning Consult poll of nationally registered voters shows Harris gaining support from voters. The new poll shows the following results from voters, with the results from the July 30 poll in parentheses.

• Kamala Harris: 48% (47%)
• Donald Trump: 44% (46%)
• Someone Else: 5% (4%)
• Don't Know: 4% (4%)

The poll found that 91% of Democrats backed Harris as their top pick, up one percentage point from the prior week. The poll also found that 89% of Republicans backed Trump as their top pick, down two percentage points from the prior week.

Independent voters selected the following as their head-to-head preference, with the results from the July 30 poll in parentheses:

• Kamala Harris: 42% (41%)
• Donald Trump: 37% (40%)
• Someone Else: 11% (10%)
• Don't Know: 10% (9%)

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Why It's Important: After trailing Trump by two points in the poll two weeks ago, Harris has posted two straight weeks of leads. The four-point lead marks the largest for Harris since taking over the nomination from President Joe Biden and is the highest lead for a Democrat over Trump in nearly a year.

Trump had grown his lead to six points over Biden before the current president dropped out of the race.

The new Morning Consult polls also showed Harris with commanding leads with two key voter groups that are considered potential swings in the election.

Harris' lead among Independent voters of five points is a record high in the current election cycle. Harris also posted a lead of nine points (49% to 40%) among voters aged 18 to 34. This also was a record high lead for the young voter group in the current election cycle.

For comparison, Biden only surpassed Harris’s current 49% approval rating among Independent voters once. Additionally, Biden trailed Trump by nine points among the 18-34 voter demographic before exiting the race.

In the poll, Harris has a favorable rating of 48% and unfavorable rating of 47%, down from a high of 50% hit during the previous week. While the figure was down, it remained higher than Trump's 46% favorable rating.

Net buzz remained strong for Harris, with 46% of voters saying they heard something positive about the vice president and 33% saying they heard something negative about Harris. The net buzz ranking was higher than previous highs from both Trump and Biden.

Since Trump’s net buzz rating reached an all-time high of negative 3 points following the RNC last month, it has steadily declined. Voters are now 20% more likely to have heard something negative than positive about him in recent days.

A new voter survey also found that Harris ranked significantly ahead of Biden for being in good health (71% to 30%), being a strong leader (48% to 38%) and being mentally fit for office (64% to 35%).

The four-point lead for Harris over Trump comes after Morning Consult recently released a swing state voter poll that found the vice president leading 48% to 47% overall in seven key states. The vice president was also leading Trump in four of the seven swing states (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin), tied in one (Georgia) and trailing in two (North Carolina, Pennsylvania).

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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.