Harris Vs. Trump: Vice President Holds 3-Point Lead Ahead Of Presidential Debate, But Swing States Still Close, Up For Grabs

Vice President Kamala Harris continues to lead over Donald Trump with two months to go until the 2024 presidential election.

What Happened: Harris continues to see leads in head-to-head polls and maintains a lead in a key national poll ahead of Tuesday's highly anticipated presidential debate between the current vice president and the former president.

A new Morning Consult poll of likely voters show Harris' lead holding steady at three points ahead of the presidential debate.

The new poll shows the following results form voters, with the results from the Sept. 3 poll in parentheses.

• Kamala Harris: 49% (49%)
• Donald Trump: 46% (46%)
• Someone Else: 2% (2%)
• Don't Know: 2% (3%)

The poll found that 94% of Democrats backed Harris as their top pick, up one percentage point from last week's poll. The poll also found that 91% of Republicans backed Trump as their top pick, which was in line with last week's poll.

Independent voters selected the following as their head-to-head preference, with the results from the Sept. 3 poll in parentheses:

• Kamala Harris: 46% (47%)
• Donald Trump: 40% (41%)
• Someone Else: 6% (6%)
• Don't Know: 7% (6%)

Harris maintained a six-point lead in the race for Independent voters, with both candidates losing one percentage point from the previous poll.

The vice president also has the edge in the 18-34 aged voters demographic leading 53% to 43%. The 10-point lead is significantly higher than a five-point advantage (50% to 45%) in last week's poll.

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Why It's Important: The latest Morning Consult poll and the one before it has shifted to include only the results of likely voters and not all registered voters. This could provide one of the better illustrations of what could happen in November.

Harris continues to rank ahead of Trump in the weekly head-to-head poll, maintaining a lead each week since the head-to-head update in the poll took place with President Joe Biden stepping down in the 2024 election.

Harris' lead is smaller than one that Biden had against Trump at this stage in the 2020 election. With two months to go before the 2020 election, Biden led Trump by eight percentage points among likely voters 51% to 43%.

This suggests that this year's presidential election could be closer than in past years.

The latest Morning Consult poll found that Harris' popularity has declined among likely voters. The vice president's net favorability is only one point, with voters only one point more likely to hold favorable opinions of Harris than those who hold unfavorable opinions (50% to 49%). For comparison, Trump's net favorability is negative 10 points with more likely voters having an unfavorable opinion than favorable one.

Morning Consult released the results of likely voters in swing states and several other states expected to be close. Here are the current results:

Arizona: 47% Harris, 49% Trump

Georgia: 48% Harris, 48% Trump

Michigan: 49% Harris, 46% Trump

Nevada: 48% Harris, 48% Trump

North Carolina: 48% Harris, 48% Trump

Pennsylvania: 49% Harris, 46% Trump

Wisconsin: 49% Harris, 46% Trump

In the key seven swing states, Harris leads in three states, Trump leads in one state and the two candidates are tied in three states.

The poll that follows next week could be one of the most closely watched as it will consider the answers from likely voters after Harris and Trump faced off for the first time in Tuesday's presidential debate.

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