Could Cookies Predict Winner Of Trump Vs. Harris In 2024 Election? Cincinnati Bakery Has Accurately Forecasted 9 Of The Last 10 Contests

A prediction method using cookies that feature images of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris may forecast the winner of the 2024 presidential election.

What Happened: Election forecasters and political analysts expect a close race in the 2024 election between Trump and Harris. Since the Sept. 10 debate between the two candidates, Harris has realized a larger lead in election polls and betting odds, but a unique prediction method might foreshadow bad news for the vice president.

Busken Bakery, based in Cincinnati, Ohio, uses a cookie poll to predict the winner of each presidential election. The bakery has correctly predicted nine of the last 10 presidential elections dating back to 1984.

In the current 2024 election battle, Trump leads with 54% (2,953 cookies), while Harris trails at 39% (2,134 cookies). A third independent smiley-face cookie has 7% (397 cookies), as reported by the New York Post.

The poll tallies the count based on the number of cookies sold through election day when bought online or at four retail stores.

"We like to joke and say (customers) can stuff the ballot box," CEO Dan Busken told The New York Post.

The cookies are available for $15 for eight online, plus additional shipping charges.

"Our results, out of our four retail stores, kind of cover the north, south, east and west portions of Cincinnati. So they're pretty diverse," Busken added.

Over the last 10 presidential election, the cookie poll has been right nine times. The lone miss was last election's win by Joe Biden.

"It's definitely interesting that in a state like Ohio and in a city like Cincinnati that there's been such accuracy in this cookie poll over the years."

The contest was created by Busken's father, who observed similar dessert polls predicting the outcomes of Super Bowl winners. The bakery uses a local artist to create the caricatures, which are then transferred to the cookies.

While some customers aren't fans of the bakery’s political stance, Busken reminds them that the contest is "meant to be fun."

Ohio, which will represent 17 electoral votes in the 2024 election, is predicted to be won by Trump. It's important to note that Trump may gain an advantage in the state, with his running mate, J.D. Vance, serving as its U.S. senator.

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Why It's Important: While the cookie method may be accurate in predicting presidents, it may have more to do with the state of Ohio being a leading indicator.

From 1964 through 2016, the state picked the winner of each presidential election, a streak that ended in the 2020 election with Trump winning Ohio and losing the overall election.

The Republican candidate won Ohio in the last two presidential elections, a Democrat candidate the two times before that, a Republican candidate the two times before that, and a Democrat candidate the two times before that. If Trump wins the state in 2024, it would mark the first time a party has won three consecutive presidential elections since the 1980 (Reagan), 1984 (Reagan), and 1988 (Bush) elections.

Election polls are commonly used to predict outcomes based on surveys of voters, while other prediction methods utilize various data and analytics.

Election forecaster and historian Allan Lichtman, who has successfully predicted nine of the last 10 presidential elections uses a 13-key system he created. His prediction recently declared that Harris would win the 2024 election based on the 13 items.

Lichtman's lone miss was in 2000 when he predicted Al Gore would defeat George W. Bush. Gore won the popular vote in the election, but lost the electoral college.

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