Will The VP Debate Influence The Trump Vs. Harris Race? 3 Prediction Market Takeaways

The vice-presidential debate between Tim Walz and JD Vance on Tuesday has stirred speculation on its impact on the closely contested race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Takeaway 1: A Tight Race Is Tightening Further

The odds for the 2024 U.S. Presidential race have tightened, with Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by a wafer-thin 49.6% to 49.4% lead on Polymarket.

According to electionbettingodds.com, the race has tightened on other markets as well, as Harris odds lead has shrunk to 50.2% compared to Trump's 49%.

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Takeaway 2: Polymarket Traders Think JD Vance WIll Come Out As The Debate WInner

Polymarket data shows that traders anticipate Vance to have come out on top in the debate, despite polling from CNN and CBS showing a nearly even split among viewers.

Vance’s chances of being seen as the debate winner are currently at 66%, while Walz’s odds have dropped to 35%.

This contrasts with CBS’s post-debate poll, where 42% of viewers believed Vance won, and 41% sided with Walz, with 17% calling it a tie.

CNN's instant poll of registered voters who watched the debate indicated that the event left viewers with a more positive view of both candidates.

Vance, in particular, gained ground by outperforming expectations, with 51% of viewers saying he did a better job than Walz.

Despite Vance’s rise, the debate did little to shift the opinions of voters, with only 1% of viewers stating it had changed their voting choice.

The CBS News survey echoed the close results, finding that both candidates were perceived as reasonable and prepared for the presidency.

The audience viewed Vance as spending more time attacking Harris and Walz, whereas more voters thought Walz focused on explaining his policies.

Takeaway 3: A Second Trump-Harris Debate Has Become Less Likely – Or Has It?

Another point of contention is whether the debate has influenced the likelihood of a second debate between Trump and Harris.

Polymarket traders seem to be pessimistic, with the odds of a follow-up debate dropping from 33% pre-debate to 21% post-debate.

The former president has rebuffed calls from the Harris campaign for a second debate, pointing to early voting already being underway as one reason that a second debate would make little sense. On an appearance on Fox, Trump lamented a perceived media bias as an obstacle to having another debate.

Fox News anchor Bret Baier cited the Trump campaign as stalling on a potential follow-up.

What’s Next: As the race progresses, the influence of these debates on the final outcome will continue to be analyzed and discussed, leading up to major events like Benzinga’s Future of Digital Assets conference on Nov. 19.

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